Dow Jones Industrial Average trims early losses on less-than-feared Durable Goods Orders plummet

The Dow Jones is clawing back recent losses as investor sentiment continues to climb.
Traders continue to bank on an eventual walk back of the Trump team’s sky-high tariff threats.
Trade deals remain limited, and the August 1 deadline is approaching fast.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rebounded on Friday, recovering its footing after a mild downturn during the previous session. Q2 earnings broadly beat the street this week, sending most major indexes into record highs, but the Dow Jones grappled with some downside in key overweight stocks, crimping the blue-chip average’s top line.

Markets rise on milder-than-expected durables decline

Headline Durable Goods Orders contracted sharply in June, contracting by 9.3% and marking in the worst two-month change since the covid pandemic. However, the top-line figure still beat median forecasts of a 10.8% contraction, bolstering immediate market reactions.

Durable Goods Orders excluding vehicles rose 0.2% MoM versus the expected 0.1%, highlighting how much of the headline decline was a result of a hard wobble in the US’s automotive sector as global-facing tariffs and steep steel and aluminum import taxes are beginning to hit US consumers and businesses alike.

US-EU trade deal: The eternal 'maybe'

Rumors continue to swirl around the tank about a possible trade deal between the US and the European Union (EU), but a continuous cycle of teases and hints from staffers under US President Donald Trump has become rote for investors awaiting firm details. The Trump administration has scrambled to secure trade deals ahead of its own self-imposed deadline of August 1. Despite multiple announcements of agreements between the US and several other countries, including the United Kingdom (UK) and Japan, very little actual paperwork has been created, leaving most market participants in the dark about what the US’s physical trade environment will look like in the near future.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones’ recovery on Friday has pushed the index back into the bullish side of recent congestion, and the DJIA is holding steady near all-time highs as bullish price action battles for a foothold near 45,000. Despite a firm upswing this week, the Dow is struggling to reclaim record high territory as its major index peers outperform the comparatively tech-light Dow Jones.

Dow Jones 15-minute chart

Dow Jones daily chart

Economic Indicator

Durable Goods Orders

The Durable Goods Orders, released by the US Census Bureau, measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, which means goods planned to last for three years or more, such as motor vehicles and appliances. As those durable products often involve large investments they are sensitive to the US economic situation. The final figure shows the state of US production activity. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the USD.

EUR/USD stays well offered below 1.1800

The selling pressure on EUR/USD is picking up pace, with the pair slipping decisively below the key 1.1800 level and sliding to fresh two week lows as Wednesday’s session draws to a close. The move lower comes as the US Dollar finds renewed strength after the latest round of US data and the release of the FOMC Minutes. Next of note on the docket will be the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims.

GBP/USD reaches multi-day lows near 1.3500

GBP/USD reverses its initial upside momentum and is now adding to previous declines, approaching the 1.3500 region on Wednesday. Cable’s downtick comes on the back of decent gains in the Greenback and easing UK inflation figures, which seem to have reinforced the case for a BoE rate cut in March.

Gold battle to regain $5,000 continues

Gold is back on the front foot on Wednesday, shaking off part of the early week softness and challenging two-day highs near the $5,000 mark per troy ounce. The move comes ahead of the FOMC Minutes and is unfolding despite an intense rebound in the US Dollar.

Bitcoin has found or is near a bottom, extended consolidation to follow: K33

Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing or has already established a bottom, which could be followed by a sustained period of slow price movement, according to K33.

Mixed UK inflation data no gamechanger for the Bank of England

Food inflation plunged in January, but service sector price pressure is proving stickier. We continue to expect Bank of England rate cuts in March and June. The latest UK inflation read is a mixed bag for the Bank of England, but we doubt it drastically changes the odds of a March rate cut.

Sui extends sideways action ahead of Grayscale’s GSUI ETF launch

Sui is extending its downtrend for the second consecutive day, trading at 0.95 at the time of writing on Wednesday. The Layer-1 token is down over 16% in February and approximately 34% from the start of the year, aligning with the overall bearish sentiment across the crypto market.