Dow Jones Industrial Average climbs in NFP-fueled risk appetite recovery

The Dow Jones recovered ground on NFP Friday, but still remains down on the week..
The US added far more jobs than expected in September.
Market hopes for a follow-up jumbo cut from the Fed have collapsed.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) rallied after US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) jobs figures blew past expectations. US NFP net job gains soared to 254K on Friday, cudgeling market hopes for a second double-wide rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) on November 7.

The US Unemployment Rate dropped back to 4.1% from the previous 4.2%, further reinforcing a healthier-than-expected landscape in the US labor market. In addition, several months’ worth of NFP releases saw healthy upside revisions. August’s previous NFP total was lifted by an additional 17K, while July’s figure rose sharply by 55K, bringing the total up to 144K.

Annual wage growth also firmed up in September, rising 4.0% YoY from the previous 3.9%. Investors had expected September’s Average Hourly Earnings growth to ease back to 3.8%. With wages and net jobs additions blowing well past expectations across the board, rate market expectations of a higher pace of rate cuts have taken a huge hit to round out a middling-at-best trading week.

According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate trader expectations for the Fed’s November rate call plummeted post-NFP; rate futures speculators now see a 95% chance that the Fed will trim rates by a modest 25 bps on November 7, with the last 5% betting on no movement at all on the Fed funds rate.

Dow Jones news

Despite a moderate recovery after a bumper NFP print, the Dow Jones only saw a tempered rally. The index broadly rallied on reaction to US jobs figures, rising nearly 400 points bottom-to-top, but the index has settled to a more reasonable 200-point gain.

Two-thirds of the Dow Jones’ constituent securities rose on Friday, led by JPMorgan Chase (JPM). JPMorgan rallied 3% on the day, climbing over $210 per share. On the low side, Home Depot (HD) backslid 1% to $407 per share.

In other stock news, Amazon (AMZN) rose nearly 2% on Friday, clipping into $185 per share on the back of upbeat jobs data and the rapid resolution of the East Coast dock worker’s strike.

Dow Jones price forecast

The Dow Jones is on an upward trajectory overall, nearing a crucial resistance level while technical indicators suggest positive momentum in the market. The index is currently hovering around 42,200, a point at which it has previously encountered selling pressure. traders are watching to see whether the Dow can surpass this resistance, a move that could open the door to further advances in the short term.

Despite the overall positive trend, recent price movements reflect uncertainty. Daily candles have been switching between bullish and bearish, indicating that the market is taking a pause as it tests the resistance level.

"We are currently at a critical juncture in the market. A clean breakout above this resistance might generate renewed buying interest," remarked one technical analyst. "However, if the Dow fails to overcome this level, we may witness a retreat toward the moving averages."

Dow Jones daily chart

Economic Indicator

Unemployment Rate

The Unemployment Rate, released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), is the percentage of the total civilian labor force that is not in paid employment but is actively seeking employment. The rate is usually higher in recessionary economies compared to economies that are growing. Generally, a decrease in the Unemployment Rate is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while an increase is seen as bearish. That said, the number by itself usually can't determine the direction of the next market move, as this will also depend on the headline Nonfarm Payroll reading, and the other data in the BLS report.

GBP/USD clings to daily gains near 1.3350

GBP/USD holds just in positive territory around 1.3350 on Friday as the Greenback keeps a vacillating price action. With Fed rate hike expectations easing and US markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, Cable remains on track to post solid weekly gains.

EUR/USD remains sidelined around 1.1440

EUR/USD holds on to its recent gains and consolidates around 1.1440 at the end of the week as the US Dollar lacks clear direction. In the meantime, trading conditions remain subdued, with volatility constrained by the closure of US markets for the Independence Day holiday.

Gold flirts with two-week highs, targets $4,200

Gold extends its recovery for a third straight day, advancing toward the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The precious metal looks set to snap a four-week losing streak as softer-than-expected June US NFP data prompt investors to scale back expectations of further Fed tightening.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP advance amid renewed capital inflows

Bitcoin maintains its upward momentum, holding above the $61,000 mark at the time of writing on Friday. Major altcoins such as Ethereum and Ripple are also posting gains, signaling a modest uptick in market sentiment and renewed risk appetite among investors.

The Iran war failed to trigger a recession. Can the US economy keep defying expectations?

Nearly four months after the start of the Iran war, the US economy remains remarkably resilient. While the conflict initially triggered a severe disruption to global energy markets and a sharp rise in Oil prices, recent diplomatic progress between Washington and Tehran has eased concerns about a prolonged supply shock.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.