Dow Jones Industrial Average struggles to find momentum ahead of tense political week

The Dow Jones struggled to maintain bullish momentum on Monday.
The AI tech rally continues to face fresh headwinds, and a key US NFP jobs report is due this week.
Labor data may wind up delayed if the US government fails to pass a funding resolution in time.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) hit a fresh patch of bearishness on Monday, easing back slightly from the week’s early highs near 46,500. Equities remain apprehensive as a looming government shutdown throws a wrench in the works for investors awaiting this week’s latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

The ongoing AI tech rally continues to wobble, but cracks are beginning to spread across the surface. Huge partnerships and investment announcements continue to pump record volumes of investment cash into the AI tech space as infrastructure spend skyrockets. However, questions about how revenues will overtake building and upkeep costs continue to mount with few answers in sight.

Investors brace for an NFP that may not come

Markets are closely watching the US government to see if Republican and Democrat lawmakers can meet in the middle on accelerating funding costs to keep the federal government operating. US President Donald Trump threatened sweeping federal worker firings if the US government can’t cut itself a cheque for the pace of outsized spending that has struck federal coffers since the Trump administration took office in January.

The US Labor Department is preparing to delay the latest NFP jobs report, currently slated for this Friday. If the federal government shuts down this week, investors will have to wait a while to see the latest employment figures. A raft of bitter labor data markdowns has left a sour taste in the mouths of many market watchers, including President Trump, who terminated the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) recently following a disastrous NFP print that showed the pace of US job creation has slowed to a crawl during his second term. A follow-up write down of job creation from March 2024 to March of 2025 showed the US economy has overall added far fewer jobs than many had priced in.

Dow Jones Daily chart

Economic Indicator

S&P Global Manufacturing PMI

The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.

AUD/USD: Next upside target comes at 0.7000

AUD/USD has advanced further, clinching its third consecutive day of gains and trading at shouting distance from the key 0.7000 threshold on Tuesday. The widespread improved sentiment in the risk complex helped the Aussie maintain its upside momentum, while the fresh selling impulse in the Greenback also contributed to the move.

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 despite hawkish BoJ outlook

USD/JPY rises back above 158.00 in the early European morning on Tuesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen fails to find any inspiration from hawkish BoJ expectations and looming intervention risks. Meanwhile, geopolitical uncertainty and elevated US bond yields keep the US Dollar near its YTD high despite receding October Fed hike bets. This, in turn, helps the pair stay supported.

Gold stays firm; looks at $4,200

Gold builds on Monday’s marginal bounce, although it struggles to reclaim the key $4,200 mark per troy ounce so far on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s advance comes on the back of the fresh downside momentum in the US Dollar in tandem with retreating US Treasury yields across the curve.

ZEC expands institutional momentum as Winklevoss files for Zcash ETF

Winklevoss Asset Services, co-owned by crypto exchange Gemini founders Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, filed a Form S-1 registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday for the Winklevoss Zcash (ZEC) ETF. The filing proposes a fund that would hold ZEC and seek to track its price.

Japanese Yen nears 158.00: Two analysts agree it's bullish, and disagree on how far the breakout goes

The JPY is drifting near 158.00 against the USD ahead of a busy week of Japanese data and a still-unclear BoJ timetable. The two most recent FXStreet analyses agree on the direction, but they disagree on the target and the mechanism.

Eurozone inflation just hit 3.8%, its highest in three years. This chart shows why the ECB can’t simply hike its way out

The ECB would normally have a relatively straightforward answer to inflation running almost twice its target: raise interest rates. But these are not normal circumstances. This time, the bond market is already doing part of the tightening for it, leaving the ECB facing an increasingly difficult dilemma.