Does the rally in Gold still have room to run? – TDS

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

The top ten participants trading in Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) Gold continue to add to their Gold positions, growing their net length towards its highest levels on record, TDS senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali note.

Trump trade contributes to recent gains

“Discretionary traders in Comex Gold have also been on the bid in recent weeks, with signs that the Trump trade has contributed to recent gains. And of course, Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) have contributed to the upside in price action over the last week. Looking forward, however, we see signs that upside momentum could be running out of steam in the near-term.”

“Nascent signs of a buyer's strike in Asia are emerging, with SGE Gold now trading at a slight discount. Chinese Gold ETFs have also recently shown signs of disinvestment, suggesting retail appetite in the nation is drying up at these higher prices. Discretionary trader positioning in Gold is also somewhat larger than is warranted by the market's expectations for Fed cuts over the next twelve months, pointing to some signs of froth.”

“And, for the first time in months, we now see downside asymmetry in CTA positioning risks as algo trend followers are now set to liquidate some length in nearly every scenario over the coming week. In fact, a continued melt-up in prices is now detrimental to CTA long positioning, given the funds' typical vol-targeting risk management frameworks.”

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD eyes 0.7150 barrier nine-day EMA

AUD/USD inches higher after registering modest losses in the previous day, trading around 0.7130 during the Asian hours. The technical analysis of the daily chart indicates that the pair is moving sideways within the rectangle pattern, suggesting a consolidation as neither the bulls nor the bears have enough momentum to take control of the market.

USD/JPY trades below 160.00 intervention threshold; bullish bias intact

The USD/JPY pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session amid fears that authorities will step in again to prop up the Japanese Yen. Furthermore, the Israel-Lebanon truce prompts some profit-taking around the US Dollar and exerts downward pressure on the currency pair.

Gold puts its 200-day SMA to the test near $4,420

Gold keeps the bullish stance in place in the latter part of Thursday’s session, although a convincing break above the key $4,500 mark per troy ounce still remains elusive. The precious metal’s advance comes amid the resurgence of some selling interest around the Greenback, improving risk sentiment, and declining US Treasury yields across the board.

Bitcoin’s massive storm is back: Why the sell-off is far from over

Bitcoin price action over the last few weeks has felt less like a normal, healthy correction and more like a slow grinding crash that continues to wreak havoc on holdings and trading accounts. And everything suggests that the dramatic crash isn’t over.

Nonfarm payrolls: Testing the limits of Fed policy patience

The upcoming nonfarm payrolls report for May will provide the final update on the US labor market before Kevin Warsh attends his first policy meeting as the new Fed Chair later this month.

Recession on paper: What really moves the Canadian Loonie now?

Statistics Canada handed the headline writers a gift and the analysts a headache. Real GDP shrank 0.1% on an annualized basis in the first quarter, and with the fourth quarter of 2025 revised down to a 1.0% contraction, that is two negative quarters in a row, the textbook definition of a technical recession and Canada's first since the pandemic.