CNY: Hardly any signs of slowdown in exports – Commerzbank

In April, Chinese exports rose by 8.1% year-on-year to reach USD 315.7 billion, marking the highest level ever recorded for the month of April, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

Depreciation of the CNY unlikely in the coming months

"Hence, there are no real signs of a slowdown due to the reciprocal tariffs imposed by the US, which increased to 145% in April. While exports to the US fell by 21% year-on-year, suggesting that exporting directly to the US has become significantly more difficult. Exports to other regions of the world continued to rise significantly. Notably, exports to ASEAN countries increased by 20.8%. Exports to the EU also rose by 8.3% compared to April 2024."

"It will certainly take a few more months to get a clearer picture of the impact of US tariffs on Chinese exports. For now, though, the effects appear to be much smaller than expected. The persistently high foreign trade surplus should therefore continue to support the currency. Stable export growth makes a significant depreciation of the CNY less likely in the coming months."