China: Weaker indicators point to slowing Q4 economic growth - NAB
Gerard Burg, senior economist at NAB, China’s November data dump points to a negative trend as the industrial production was at a post-GFC low, trade activity slowed noticeably and the retail sector remains subdued.
Key Quotes
“Combined, these indicators point to slowing economic growth in Q4 – albeit within the bounds of our forecasts. Our forecasts remain unchanged, with China’s economy growing by 6.6% in 2018, down to 6.25% in 2019 and 6.0% in 2020.”
“China’s industrial production growth slowed considerably in November – increasing by 5.4% yoy (compared with 5.9% in October).”
“China’s nominal fixed asset investment grew a little more slowly in November. However, the sharp downturn in producer prices – which flow through into investment goods – meant that real investment growth increased, up by 5.6% yoy, from 5.3% in October.”
“In real terms, China’s retail sales growth edged marginally higher in November – to 5.8% yoy (from 5.6% in October), a historically weak result.”
“New credit issuance remained weak in November, with lending falling by around 20% yoy.”
Author
Sandeep Kanihama
FXStreet Contributor
Sandeep Kanihama is an FX Editor and Analyst with FXstreet having principally focus area on Asia and European markets with commodity, currency and equities coverage. He is stationed in the Indian capital city of Delhi.
