China: Upside surprise from activity indicators – Deutsche Bank


Deutsche Bank analysts note that the China’s Q1 GDP came in one tenth above expectations at 6.4% yoy while all of the March activity indicators surprised on the upside.

Key Quotes

“Industrial production surging at +8.5% yoy (vs. +5.9% yoy expected) – the highest since July 2014. Retail sales printed at +8.7% yoy (vs. +8.4% yoy expected), YTD fixed assets ex rural came in line with consensus at +6.3% yoy and the jobless rate fell one tenth to 5.2%. This data confirms what we’d been expecting given the credit impulse numbers in recent months and should help European data over the coming weeks.”

“The downside to the numbers will be a more hawkish PBOC. Their monetary policy statement yesterday described the appropriate policy stance as “moderately tight” and it seems today they injected much less liquidity into the market as was expected. So that’s the only sting in the tail to these numbers.”

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