Analysts from Danske Bank, see clear signs that the Chinese housing market is slowing and they point to the weakness in the housing sector as the main reason to expect a moderate slowdown in the overall economy.
“We now see very clear signs that the Chinese housing market is slowing: October home sales growth stayed in negative territory and PMI construction for October was at the lowest level since March 2016. The declining activity comes on the back of a long range of tightening measures
starting mid-2016 fuelling a sharp decline in credit growth.”
“We look for a continued slowdown of Chinese housing over the next 12 months as credit tightening continues and there is no sign of an easing of the policy. Weaker housing is main reason why we expect a moderate slowdown in the overall Chinese economy.”
“The construction slowdown is expected to weigh on global metal prices and we forecast small declines. China will move from an inflationary global force over the past two years to a deflationary force again.”
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