ANZ analysts have decided to revise their GDP forecast for Chinese economy to 6.2% for 2019 (-0.2ppt) and 6.0% for 2020 (-0.1ppt) as the economic data coming out of country over the past two months have not lived up to their expectations.
“The slowdown in the real estate sector is concerning. We really need to keep an eye on its negative impact on growth. Property investment slightly moderated to 11.2% ytd, from 11.9% in April with funding growth slowing to 7.6% from 8.9% last month.”
“Besides our ongoing call for a further 100bp cut in the reserve requirement ratio in the rest of the year, expectations of a US Fed rate cut will also allow the PBoC room to adjust the money market rate. We expect the PBoC to cut the 7-day reverse repo rate by 5bps in Q3 2019.”
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