CAD: Rally faces a fundamental reality check - ING

Eren Sengezer FXStreet

"The CAD rally has run out of steam in the face of more realistic BoC tightening expectations and range-bound oil prices," explains Viraj Patel, Foreign Exchange Strategist at ING.

Key quotes:

"On the former, the recent narrowing of two-year US-Canadian swap rates - the primary driver for USD/CAD's sharp adjustment lower - has been extreme. We look for a partial reversal as a 2H17 recovery in the US economy lifts December Fed rate hike prospects, while softer macro data in Canada questions the market's expectation for 50bp of BoC hikes by end-2018."

"Equally, we've yet to see the economic fallout from the recent CAD appreciation; the July MPR forecasts were based on USD/CAD remaining around 1.31-1.32 and any move below here can be seen as a drag on the BoC's policy reaction function."

"We believe the OECD PPP fair value of 1.27 will act as a near-term anchor point for USD/CAD. The risks are for a retrace towards 1.30 in 3Q17 as lower oil, geopolitics and softer Canadian data weigh on the CAD."

Author

Eren Sengezer

FXStreet

As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.