|

Brexit week: Get set for a rollercoaster of a week in GBP-FX

  • its all eyes on sterling at the start of this week with the Brexit vote this week and there are concerns that the deal will be defeated - Subsequently, sterling dropped on the open today.
  • MPs will pass their verdict on Prime Minister Theresa May's plan to take Britain out of the European Union on 29 March this Tuesday.

Cable opened with a bearish gap of over half a buck as traders get positioned for a bumpy ride this week. MPs will pass their verdict on Prime Minister Theresa May's plan to take Britain out of the European Union on 29 March this Tuesday.

Here is some information you should know if you intend trading the event.

Firstly, the vote will be held on Tuesday evening, following a full day of debate in the Commons - the time of the vote will be announced in due course.

This is THE vote and if the deal is voted down, its got to be one of two things:

  • The UK will either leave the EU on 29 March without a withdrawal agreement, or;
  • The departure date will be delayed.

However, should MPs support the deal, a permanent deal will then be negotiated while things will stay broadly as they are until December 2020 following Brexit that will occur on  29 March.

Markets suspect that despite the UK's government minister's attempts to persuade the EU into making concessions in order to get a deal through Parliament and acceptable to the MPs who voted against it in January, the deal will indeed be voted down on only minor tweaks to the existing agreement that was so badly defeated last time around. 

However, while an initial punt to the downside in the pound on such sentiment is taking place, considering that MPs were promised a vote on whether the UK should leave without a deal or not, which would probably happen the following day, such an outcome would support the case for a delay to Brexit from the EU, so long as they do not back a no-deal Brexit - that vote will likely be on Thursday. 

However, should May only lose by a small margin, the EU might be inclined to offer the UK some more time to get it over the line - The next EU summit in on 22 March which is where May would likely use as a platform to spur-up further support before she takes it back to The Commons for one final shove to the line.

Author

Ross J Burland

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

More from Ross J Burland
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD drops to daily lows near 1.1630

EUR/USD now loses some traction and slips back to the area of daily lows around 1.1630 on the back of a mild bounce in the US Dollar. Fresh US data, including the September PCE inflation numbers and the latest read on December consumer sentiment, didn’t really move the needle, so the pair is still on course to finish the week with a respectable gain.

GBP/USD trims gains, recedes toward 1.3320

GBP/USD is struggling to keep its daily advance, coming under fresh pressure and retreating to the 1.3320 zone following a mild bullish attempt in the Greenback. Even though US consumer sentiment surprised to the upside, the US Dollar isn’t getting much love, as traders are far more interested in what the Fed will say next week.

Gold makes a U-turn, back to $4,200

Gold is now losing the grip and receding to the key $4,200 region per troy ounce following some signs of life in the Greenback and a marked bounce in US Treasury yields across the board. The positive outlook for the precious metal, however, remains underpinned by steady bets for extra easing by the Fed.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pare gains despite increasing hopes of upcoming Fed rate cut

Bitcoin is steadying above $91,000 at the time of writing on Friday. Ethereum remains above $3,100, reflecting positive sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy meeting on December 10.

Week ahead – Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides

Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low.

Ripple faces persistent bear risks, shrugging off ETF inflows

Ripple is extending its decline for the second consecutive day, trading at $2.06 at the time of writing on Friday. Sentiment surrounding the cross-border remittance token continues to lag despite steady inflows into XRP spot ETFs.