Brexit process in government’s hands – Natixis

Sylwia Hubar, Research Analyst at Natixis, notes that parliamentary Ping-Pong has given the government a free hand in the Brexit process as the House of Commons rejected the changes by the upper house, while the Lords did not insist on the amendments, which would guarantee: 1/ protections to EU citizens and 2/ a “meaningful vote” on a final Brexit deal.

Key Quotes

“The trigger and negotiations are therewith in the government’s hands, meaning that Britain is heading for a hard Brexit. We expect May to begin the official process as planned by the end of March.” 

“The European Union (Notification of Withdrawal) Bill passed unaltered by the House of Commons. The government overturned the two amendments backed by the Lords last week:

1/ parliamentary veto on the final Brexit deal rejected by the House of Commons by 331 to 286 votes

2/ protection of the rights of EU citizens living in the UK dismissed by the House of Commons by 335 votes to 287

The House of Lords did not insist on the amendments, the peers voted by 274 to 118 not to challenge the Commons.” 

“EU leaders have planned a Brexit summit for April 6-7 to respond to May’s formal notification of Britain’s departure from the EU, yet the timing of the summit will depend on when Theresa May triggers Article 50. The EU needs about four weeks after May’s letter activating withdrawal under Article 50 to be ready for the summit.”

“Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon announced she planned to hold a second independence referendum vote between autumn 2018 and spring 2019. Sturgeon will seek the Scottish Parliament's permission next Tuesday to request a Section 30 order from the UK’s Parliament (temporary transfer of the legal authority to hold a second referendum).”

“Outlook

The British Parliament passed the initial Brexit bill without amendments giving the government a free hand in the Brexit process. No parliamentary scrutiny on Brexit negotiations and no final say on the Brexit deal mean there is a high risk that Brexit process would end without a deal as “no deal is better than a bad deal” and so if no contingency measures are put in place, Britain could fall back on to WTO rules in a two-year time.”