Breaking: BOE hikes policy rate by 75 bps to 3% as expected

FXStreet Team FXStreet

Following its November policy meeting, the Bank of England (BoE) announced that it raised the policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) to 3%. Policymakers voted 7-2 in favour of this decision. One policymaker voted for a 25 bps hike and one voted for a 50 bps.

Follow our live coverage of the BoE policy announcements and the market reaction.

Market reaction

The British pound came under renewed bearish pressure with the initial reaction. As of writing, GBPUSD was down 1.6% on the day at 1.1208.

Key takeaways from policy statement

"Majority of MPC judge further increases in bank rate may be required, albeit to a lower peak than 5.2% priced into markets."

"If the outlook suggests more inflation pressure, MPC will respond forcefully as necessary."

"Very challenging outlook for UK economy; financial conditions have tightened materially since August."

"BoE forecast based on government fiscal policy up to Oct. 17, assumes energy support continues at around half current scale for 18 months after April 2023."

"Market rates imply more BoE tightening than Aug, show bank rate at 3.0% in Q4 2022, 5.2% in Q4 2023, 4.7% in Q4 2024 (Aug: 2.4% in Q4 2022, 2.9% in Q4 2023, 2.4% in Q4 2024)."

"Policy report shows inflation peaking at around 11% in Q4 (Sep forecast: peak of just under 11% in Oct. 2022)."

"Forecasts show 2.9% peak-to-trough fall in GDP based on market rates, around 1.7% if bank rate held at 3%."

"Forecast shows inflation in one year's time at 5.20% (Aug forecast: 9.53%), based on market interest rates and modal forecast."

"Forecast shows inflation in two years' time at 1.43% (Aug forecast: 2.00%), based on market interest rates."

"Forecast shows inflation in three years' time at 0.02% (May forecast: 0.76%), based on market interest rates."

"Forecast shows that if rates held at 3%, inflation 2.16% in two years' time at, 0.84% in three years."

"BoE estimates GDP growth of -0.5% QQ for Q3 2022 (Sep forecast: -0.1% QQ), sees -0.3% QQ in Q4 2022, based on market rates."

"BoE estimates GDP in 2022 +4.25% (Aug forecast: +3.5%), 2023 -1.5% (Aug: -1.5%), 2024 -1% (Aug: -0.25%), based on market rates."

"BoE estimates real post-tax household disposable income in 2022 -0.25% YY (Aug: -1.5%), 2023 -1.5% (Aug: -2.25%), 2024 +0.75% (Aug: +0.75%)."

"Policy report estimates unemployment rate 3.65% in Q4 2022 (Aug forecast: 3.67%); Q4 2023 4.94% (Aug: 4.68%); Q4 2024 5.86% (Aug: 5.68%), Q4 2025 6.40%."

"Majority of MPC favoured 75 bp rate hike because of domestic price pressure, fiscal policy."

"BoE estimates wage growth +5.75% YY in Q4 2022 (Aug forecast: +5.25%), Q4 2023 +4.25% (Aug: +5.25%), Q4 2024 +2.75% (Aug: +2.75%)."

"Majority of MPC say 75 bp increase would reduce risk of extended, costly tightening later."

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FXStreet Team

FXStreet

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