BoJ seen laying groundwork but still far from stimulus exit - Reuters poll

According to the latest Reuters poll of economists, a third of economists believe the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) latest action to make its policy more flexible indicate it is preparing for an eventual exit from its ultra-lose monetary policy, although the exit is unlikely to happen any time soon.

Key Findings:

“12 out of 35 economists said the central bank’s steps brought it closer to crafting an exit strategy — although implementing one remained far off.

In fact, 73 percent of economists who see stimulus unwinding as the BOJ’s next step don’t expect that to happen until 2020 or later, up from 37 percent last month.

But economists were positive towards the BOJ’s decision to let 10-year yields move between minus 0.2 percent and 0.2 percent — double the previous range — as keeping yields in too narrow of a band had been shrinking bond trading.

Twenty-seven of 35 economists said the move on yields would help bond market functioning, while eight disagreed, the poll taken between Aug. 3 and 8 found.

Elsewhere, economists project the core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food, will rise 0.9 percent in the fiscal year to March 2019, and the same rate the following year — excluding the effects of a planned sales tax increase.”