BOJ keeps inflation forecasts unchanged, revises up GDP


In today's decision, the Bank of Japan has also updated its outlook on groowth and inflation, with the former revised up marginally, while the latter sees no change against market expectations, noting inflation is expected to remain on a weak note. 

Main headlines

Core cpi expected +1.5 pct in fy2017/18 vs +1.5 pct projected in nov

Core cpi expected +1.7 pct in fy2018/19 vs +1.7 pct projected in nov

Core cpi expected -0.2 pct in fy2016/17 vs -0.1 pct projected in nov

Japan GDP revised up to around 0.5 pct from 0-0.5 pct

Likely to see inflation reach 2 pct around fiscal 2018

Uncertainty on overseas economies including us monetary policy, china, brexit pose downside risks

If confidence in japan fiscal sustainability falls, could cause uncertainty, leading to rise in long term yields

If confidence in japan's fiscal policy improves, could be upside risk for economy

There is risk firms could be cautious about setting prices and wages

Moves in fx, other commodities pose both upside, downside risks to main scenario

Uncertainty on overseas economies including us monetary policy, china, brexit pose downside risks

Japan economy continues moderate recovery trend

Quarterly report: Japan economy likely to expand moderately ahead

Risks to economy, prices tilted to downside

Momentum to achieve 2 pct price goal maintained but lacks strength

BOJ QQE with yield curve control until needed to stably achieve 2 pct inflation

BOJ will make policy adjustments as appropriate looking at econ, prices, financial conditions

Inflation expectations remain on weak note

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