BoE's Greene: We should see some trade diversion coming from China
Bank of England (BoE) policymaker Megan Greene said on Friday that they are not sure if the weakness in the UK economy is caused by demand or supply, per Reuters.
Key takeaways
"More worried about supply, really weak productivity growth."
"There are concerns about impact of the government's budget changes."
"We have no idea what US tariffs will look like when the dust settles."
"The risk is now on the disinflationary side because of tariffs."
"We are seeing an output gap open up which should help bring inflation back to target."
"We should see some trade diversion coming from China."
"Slight concern that inflation expectations show people more worried about inflation."
"UK labour market has been weakening pretty slowly but we should see wage growth come down."
Market reaction
GBP/USD largely ignores these comments and was last seen losing 0.2% on the day at 1.3310.
BoE FAQs
The Bank of England (BoE) decides monetary policy for the United Kingdom. Its primary goal is to achieve ‘price stability’, or a steady inflation rate of 2%. Its tool for achieving this is via the adjustment of base lending rates. The BoE sets the rate at which it lends to commercial banks and banks lend to each other, determining the level of interest rates in the economy overall. This also impacts the value of the Pound Sterling (GBP).
When inflation is above the Bank of England’s target it responds by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is positive for the Pound Sterling because higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls below target, it is a sign economic growth is slowing, and the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit in the hope businesses will borrow to invest in growth-generating projects – a negative for the Pound Sterling.
In extreme situations, the Bank of England can enact a policy called Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the BoE substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. QE is a last resort policy when lowering interest rates will not achieve the necessary result. The process of QE involves the BoE printing money to buy assets – usually government or AAA-rated corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Pound Sterling.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE, enacted when the economy is strengthening and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Bank of England (BoE) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to encourage them to lend; in QT, the BoE stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive for the Pound Sterling.
Author
Eren Sengezer
FXStreet
As an economist at heart, Eren Sengezer specializes in the assessment of the short-term and long-term impacts of macroeconomic data, central bank policies and political developments on financial assets.
