BoC to be cautiously optimistic next week – TDS

Analysts at TD Securities are expecting the Bank’s tone next week to be cautiously optimistic next week and they will acknowledge softer household spending but are likely to argue that population growth and wages will support solid spending growth going forward, while easing trade tensions will support business investment and exports.

Key Quotes

“The Bank will also incorporate new fiscal measures in their forecast this quarter — and while details of coming policy measures have been sparse, recently announced tax measures should also provide a lift to household spending forecasts. The Bank will still have to lower its forecast for 2019Q4, but it will remain above our tracking of 0.5% — and to a significant extent to the negative revisions will be offset by quicker growth in 2020Q1.”

“We expect the Bank’s forecast for growth in 2020 and 2021 to be unchanged at 1.7% and 1.8% respectively, with an upside risk to the 2021 growth forecast. Similarly, forecasts for global growth should be stable to slightly higher, which will give the communique a hawkish tinge.”

“Look for the Bank to continue to describe the economy as operating close to capacity, with CPI and core CPI inflation expected to remain near target.”