BoC: Expect the next move in the overnight rate to be a 25 bp rate cut in April 2020 - TDS

Although the Bank of Canada was careful to leave all options open going forward, analysts at TD Securities no longer think they are likely to cut rates in January.

Key quotes

"For a central bank that has been pre-occupied with downside risks from global trade developments, this is notable and suggests growing confidence that the worst-case scenario will be avoided."

"The Bank has always given the distinct impression that they would prefer not to cut rates from these levels if they could at all help it – and with the upward revisions to GDP in late 2018 and early 2019 we believe the output gap is roughly 0.2 p.p. smaller than previously reported."

"We will still look for the economy to slow next year (we are forecasting 2020 GDP growth at 1.4-1.5%), so we do expect that the BoC will eventually be forced to cut rates – the timeframe for easing will just stretch a little bit later into 2020. We now look for a 25bp rate cut in April 2020."

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