Banxico seen cutting rates 50 bps according to poll – Reuters
On May 15, Banco de México, also known as Banxico, is expected to reduce interest rates to 8.5%, according to a Reuters poll on Monday, despite high inflation levels near the top of the central bank’s range.
Of 31 economists polled, 30 expect Banxico to deliver its third straight 50 bps cut. At the latest monetary policy meeting, Banxico stated it could consider further significant rate adjustments in subsequent decisions if allowed by inflation.
Mexico’s latest inflation report, released last week, revealed that prices rose by 3.93% year-over-year (YoY) in April.
Banxico’s policymakers appear concerned about economic growth, as evident in their recent media appearances. Private analysts said the risks of another economic contraction remain.
For the June meeting, 19 of 21 analysts expect another rate cut at the June meeting. The poll revealed that the median of 23 forecasts Mexico’s key interest rate level is expected to end at 7.75% by the end of the year.
Banxico FAQs
The Bank of Mexico, also known as Banxico, is the country’s central bank. Its mission is to preserve the value of Mexico’s currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN), and to set the monetary policy. To this end, its main objective is to maintain low and stable inflation within target levels – at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%.
The main tool of the Banxico to guide monetary policy is by setting interest rates. When inflation is above target, the bank will attempt to tame it by raising rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money and thus cooling the economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. The rate differential with the USD, or how the Banxico is expected to set interest rates compared with the US Federal Reserve (Fed), is a key factor.
Banxico meets eight times a year, and its monetary policy is greatly influenced by decisions of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). Therefore, the central bank’s decision-making committee usually gathers a week after the Fed. In doing so, Banxico reacts and sometimes anticipates monetary policy measures set by the Federal Reserve. For example, after the Covid-19 pandemic, before the Fed raised rates, Banxico did it first in an attempt to diminish the chances of a substantial depreciation of the Mexican Peso (MXN) and to prevent capital outflows that could destabilize the country.
Author
Christian Borjon Valencia
FXStreet
Markets analyst, news editor, and trading instructor with over 14 years of experience across FX, commodities, US equity indices, and global macro markets.
