Australia: RBA holds OCR steady – UOB Group

As expected, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to leave its cash rate target unchanged at a 13-year high of 4.35%, UOB Group’s economist Lee Sue Ann notes.

First rate cut may not arrive until February 2025

“The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept rates at a 13-year high of 4.35% earlier today (5 November), as expected, and continued to emphasize ‘the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation’.”

“The trimmed mean measure of inflation that the RBA pays most attention to will ease slightly faster than predicted, touching the top end of its 2%-3% band by Jun 2025 and reach the mid-point of 2.5% by the end of 2026.”

“There is still the possibility that the first rate cut will not arrive until its February meeting in 2025, if the RBA chooses to wait for the 4Q24 CPI print, due for release on 29 January 2025. In the meantime, we will continue to keep watch on upcoming data releases, including 3Q24 wage data (13 November); October labour market data (14 November), as well as monthly inflation readings for Oct (27 November).”