Australia: Labour market remains healthy – UOB

Pablo Piovano FXStreet

Economist at UOB Group Lee Sue Ann reviews the latest release of the Australian labour market report.

Key Takeaways

“Australia’s seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 40,900 people (0.3%) in Jul, disappointing expectations for a gain of 25,000 even as the unemployment rate fell to 3.4% in Jul, the lowest since Aug 1974. Meanwhile, seasonally adjusted wage price index (WPI) rose for the third consecutive quarter, up 0.7% q/q in 2Q22. Annual wage growth came in at 2.6% y/y, the highest annual rate of wage growth since Sep 2014.

“Overall, the Australian labour market looks to tighten further in the next couple of months before slowing growth will likely push the jobless rate higher back towards the 3.8%-4.0% levels. Wage growth is also expected to pick up to over 3% by 2023.”

“Following the 50bps hike earlier this month, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is thus expected to continue pushing interest rates higher. We now believe the RBA can afford to raise the cash rate by a further 40bps to 2.25% at the 6 Sep meeting, given the extremely tight labour market and soaring inflation.”

Author

Pablo Piovano

FXStreet

Born and bred in Argentina, Pablo has been carrying on with his passion for FX markets and trading since his first college years.

GBP/USD nudges higher above 1.3350 despite Middle East turmoil

The GBP/USD pair rebounds to near 1.3385 during the Asian trading hours on Thursday. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid cooler-than-expected UK inflation data and escalating tensions in the Middle East. Traders will take more cues from the UK Retail Sales report, which is due later on Friday.

EUR/USD advances ahead of ECB policy decision

EUR/USD extends its gains for the second consecutive day, trading around 1.1410 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The pair gains ground as the Euro finds solid support ahead of the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision.

Gold holds above $4,100 as weak USD counters Fed hike bets amid US-Iran escalation

Gold holds above the $4,100 mark during the Asian session, and seems to have stalled the previous day's modest pullback from an over two-week high. Crude oil prices climb to a fresh high since June 11 amid a further escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, fueling inflation fears and bolstering US Federal Reserve interest rate hike expectations. This lifts US Treasury bond yields to a multi-month high and is seen as a key factor acting as a headwind for the non-yielding bullion.

Hyperliquid, Robinhood could lead crypto’s next bull market as DeFi and TradFi converge

The next crypto bull market could be driven by the growing convergence between blockchain-based financial infrastructure and traditional finance, according to Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan. In a report published late Tuesday, Hougan argued that crypto may be showing early signs of a market bottom, with Bitcoin gaining 9% since July 1 even as the NASDAQ 100 declined 6%.

Ripple and Stellar await direction amid cautious sentiment

Ripple and Stellar trade cautiously as both tokens hover around key technical levels. XRP is testing resistance at its 50-day EMA, while XLM continues to consolidate around the $0.187 support zone. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives data with a slight bearish tilt suggests traders remain cautious, keeping the next directional move uncertain.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.