The research team at Westpac, expects the Australian import price index to contract by 0.4% and export price index to surge by 6% in the first quarter.
Key Quotes
“In the March quarter, the price of imported goods most likely edged lower, down a forecast 0.4%. This continues the downward trend of late, to have prices 2% below the level of a year ago. Import prices weakened over the past year largely because of the partial rebound in the Australian dollar.”
“In Q1, the Australian dollar appreciated by almost 2% on a TWI basis to be about 7% higher than a year ago. However, higher energy prices in the period will provide a partial offset to the dampening impact of the stronger currency. Gasoline price rose by around 10% in the opening quarter of 2017, extending the rebound since mid-2016.”
“Export prices rebounded over the past year as commodity prices bounced off the lows prevailing early in 2016. The export price index rose by a forecast 6% in Q1, with upside risks, to be around 25% higher than a year ago. That would still have the export price index around 13% below the peak of late 2011.”
“Commodity prices made sizeable gains in the opening quarter of 2017, up 8.5% in AUD terms on the WCFI measure, and posting even stronger gains as measured on the RBA commodity price index. The terms of trade for goods, on these estimates, increases by around 6.5% in the quarter to be 28% above a year ago.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD risks a deeper drop in the short term
AUD/USD rapidly left behind Wednesday’s decent advance and resumed its downward trend on the back of the intense buying pressure in the greenback, while mixed results from the domestic labour market report failed to lend support to AUD.
EUR/USD leaves the door open to a decline to 1.0600
A decent comeback in the Greenback lured sellers back into the market, motivating EUR/USD to give away the earlier advance to weekly tops around 1.0690 and shift its attention to a potential revisit of the 1.0600 neighbourhood instead.
Gold is closely monitoring geopolitics
Gold trades in positive territory above $2,380 on Thursday. Although the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds steady following upbeat US data, XAU/USD continues to stretch higher on growing fears over a deepening conflict in the Middle East.
Bitcoin price shows strength as IMF attests to spread and intensity of BTC transactions ahead of halving
Bitcoin (BTC) price is borderline strong and weak with the brunt of the weakness being felt by altcoins. Regarding strength, it continues to close above the $60,000 threshold for seven weeks in a row.
Is the Biden administration trying to destroy the Dollar?
Confidence in Western financial markets has already been shaken enough by the 20% devaluation of the dollar over the last few years. But now the European Commission wants to hand Ukraine $300 billion seized from Russia.