Australia Economic and Fiscal Outlook: Sees surplus of A$6.1 Bln In 19/20, bown from A$11.0 Bln seen in April

The Australia Economic and Fiscal Outlook sees a surplus of A$6.1 bln in 19/20, down from A$11.0 bln seen in April.

Additional points

• Sees underlying cash balance of a$5.0 bln in 19/20.
• Lowers 19/20 GDP estimate to 2.25% from 2.75%.
• Wage growth estimate to 2.50% from 2.75%.
• Sees surplus of a$6.1 bln in 19/20, down from a$11.0 bln seen in April.
• Sees underlying cash balance of a$5.0 bln in 19/20.
• Lowers 19/20 GDP estimate to 2.25% from 2.75%.
• Lowers 19/20 wage growth estimate to 2.50% from 2.75%.

FX implications

• AUD/USD prudent bulls seek break above 200-DMA and 0.6950s

The news is unlikely to impact markets. Instead, AUD/USD is resting on the trend-line support following a series of profit-taking last week on the trade noise. Bulls will now look for a constructive buy entry so long as the market holds here and breaks beyond the 200-day moving average and close above prior resistance/support area of 0.6930/50. 

"Technical indicators, in the meantime, retreat from overbought readings,  suggesting the pair may have hit an interim top, to be confirmed it the current decline continues sub-0.6865 a former relevant resistance level,"

Valeria Bednarik, the Chief Analyst at FXStreet argued.