Aussie data dump positive for AUD: Retail sales -17.7% MoM vs -17.9%, Trade Balance a surplus


We have seen data from Australia in the form of April Retail Sales -17.7 pct beating a Reuters poll -17.9 pct for the month and a higher surplus than expected in the trade numbers as follows:

  • Australia April balance goods/svcs A$+8,800 mln, s/adj (Reuters poll: A$+7,500 mln).
  • Australia April goods/services exports -11 pct m/m, seasonally adjusted.
  • Australia April goods/services imports -10 pct m/m, seasonally adjusted.

Market impact

AUD/USD has been relatively unchanged on the data beats but it is an additional input which has surpassed expectations and fits the cautiously optimistic narrative of the markets of late which has helped to support the sensational rise in the currency this week. 

However, we should remember that the numbers merely suggest the rate of deterioration in the economy is moderating more quickly than anticipated, rather than things are actually getting better.

Description of Retail Sales

The Retail Sales released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is a survey of goods sold by retailers is based on a sampling of retail stores of different types and sizes and it''s considered as an indicator of the pace of the Australian economy. It shows the performance of the retail sector over the short and mid-term. Positive economic growth anticipates bullish trends for the AUD, while a low reading is seen as negative or bearish.

Description of the trade balance

The trade balance released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics is the difference in the value of its imports and exports of Australian goods. Export data can give an important reflection of Australian growth, while imports provide an indication of domestic demand. Trade Balance gives an early indication of the net export performance. If a steady demand in exchange for Australian exports is seen, that would turn into a positive growth in the trade balance, and that should be positive for the AUD.
Review Alex Nekritin's Article - Trading the Aussie with Australia Trade Balance

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