AUD/USD: The risk of further short-term weakness remains in place – Credit Suisse

FXStreet Team FXStreet

The AUD/USD pair is back pressuring the 55-day average at 0.7595, increasing the risk of further near-term weakness again, analysts at Credit Suisse appraise.

Key quotes

“AUD/USD is back under pressure in line with its recently completed small top and is pressuring the crucial 55-day average, currently at 0.7595, with the aussie already prodding beneath this level in early trading today. Although the market has so far managed to essentially hold above here, we see an increased risk of a break lower again as the daily MACD momentum turned negative for the first time in 2021.”

“A clear close beneath 0.7595 would reinforce the top significantly and open up a move to 0.7464/57, just below the ‘measured top objective’ at 0.7503, where we then would expect a more concerted effort to hold.”

“Immediate resistance is seen at 0.7648, then 0.7662/81, where we would expect fresh sellers at first. Removal of here would question the top and expose the late January high at 0.7704, above which would see a move back to 0.7764/70, beyond which would then negate the bearish “reversal day” and see a fresh test of 0.7782.”

Author

FXStreet Team

FXStreet

Composed of a group of economic journalists and FX experts, the FXStreet content team produces and oversees all content published on FXStreet. It provides a purely journalistic approach to the Forex market.

GBP/USD remains offered; bears target 1.3600

GBP/USD now leaves behind part of its recent recovery and revisits the low 1.3600s at the beginning of the week. Indeed, Cable trades with a mild downward bias amid decent gains in the Greenback as investors remain wary of upcoming US data releases and the Jackson Hole event.

EUR/USD remains sidelined above 1.1650

EUR/USD trades on the defensive following the closing bell on Wall Street on Monday, hovering around the 1.1660 region and adding to Friday’s small decline. The pair’s pullback comes in response to an acceptable rebound in the US Dollar in a context of generalised caution ahead of key US data releases and Chair Warsh’s speech in Jackson Hole.

Gold poised to extend its bullish run

Gold surrenders part of its initial advance, although it keeps its bullish pace well and sound above the $4,600 mark per troy ounce on Monday. The precious metal’s move higher comes despite slight gains in the US Dollar and a modest pullback in US Treasury yields across the curve.

XRP surged 72%, but is the rally really about XRP?

Ripple (XRP) surged more than 72% in less than a week, its strongest rally since July 2025, as cryptocurrency prices broadly broke out. But the move has a problem: it may have little to do with XRP itself. The token's near-term rally appears to have been driven largely by a broader liquidity shift after the US Treasury expanded long-end bond buybacks, pulling yields lower and lifting risk assets.

Convulsion in credit markets

The United States government just posted a $432.3 billion deficit for July, the largest monthly shortfall since March of 2021. That single burst of red ink pushed the yeartodate deficit to $1.8 trillion, with two months still remaining in fiscal 2026. At this pace, Washington will soon wax nostalgic for the “good old days” when annual deficits were only $2 trillion.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.