AUD/USD stuck near 0.6600 ahead of Australian CPI

AUD/USD continues to cycle around the 0.6600 handle.
Aussie CPI print for Q4 2023 expected to show further inflation easing.
US Fed rate call, NFP labor figures to weigh down the rest of the trading week.

Joshua Gibson FXStreet

AUD/USD cycled in a familiar pattern around the 0.6600 price point on Tuesday as Antipodeans gear up for a fresh print of Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation figures with the next rate call from the US Federal Reserve (Fed0 in the barrel for Wednesday and US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) labor figures slated for Friday.

Australia’s QoQ CPI is expected to ease back to 0.8% from the previous quarter’s 1.2%, and the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Trimmed Mean CPI for the annualized fourth quarter is likewise forecast to clip down from 5.2% to 4.3%.

Australia Monthly CPI Preview: Inflation expected to ease further

The heavy-hitters this week revolve around a one-two punch of another Fed rate call and Friday’s US NFP labor print. The Fed is broadly expected to keep rates on hold this week, but cut-hungry investors are having a hard time letting go of bets for a March rate cut, with 44% of the rate swap market still hoping for a rate cut by March according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool.

This week’s US NFP print is expected to show a slight cooling in US labor markets, with the NFP forecast to come in at 180K in January compared to December’s 216K. Markets have routinely undershot NFP forecasts recently, and a topside upset could see investors suffering a rate tantrum as a stubbornly-healthy US labor market reduces chances of rate cuts happening sooner rather than later.

AUD/USD technical outlook

AUD/USD continues to get hung up on the 0.6600 handle, with intraday price action cycling the major price level with near-term momentum getting propped up by a bullish tilt in the 200-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) rising into 0.6590.

Daily candlesticks remain underpinned by the 200-day SMA at 0.6570, and the AUD/USD is caught in a dense congestion zone between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs as the pair consolidates into the midrange.

AUD/USD Hourly chart

AUD/USD Daily chart

AUD/USD

Overview
Today last price	0.6598
Today Daily Change	-0.0014
Today Daily Change %	-0.21
Today daily open	0.6612

Trends
Daily SMA20	0.6642
Daily SMA50	0.6661
Daily SMA100	0.653
Daily SMA200	0.6577

Levels
Previous Daily High	0.6616
Previous Daily Low	0.657
Previous Weekly High	0.6621
Previous Weekly Low	0.6552
Previous Monthly High	0.6871
Previous Monthly Low	0.6526
Daily Fibonacci 38.2%	0.6598
Daily Fibonacci 61.8%	0.6588
Daily Pivot Point S1	0.6582
Daily Pivot Point S2	0.6553
Daily Pivot Point S3	0.6537
Daily Pivot Point R1	0.6628
Daily Pivot Point R2	0.6645
Daily Pivot Point R3	0.6674

Author

Joshua Gibson

FXStreet

Joshua joins the FXStreet team as an Economics and Finance double major from Vancouver Island University with twelve years' experience as an independent trader focusing on technical analysis.

AUD/USD consolidates above 0.7000; remains close to monthly top

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7000 during the Asian session on Friday, trading just below the previous day's monthly low amid diverging forces. A hawkish RBA continues to support the Aussie, while the recent decline in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar depressed near a three-week low. However, oil-driven inflation fears reinforce Fed hike bets, which, along with geopolitical risks, could benefit the safe-haven buck and cap the currency pair.

USD/JPY bounces off one-month low; climbs to 157.00 amid reviving USD demand

USD/JPY rebounds from the 156.00 neighborhood, or a one-month low touched during Friday’s Asian session, with bulls looking to extend momentum beyond 157.00 amid the emergence of some US Dollar buying. Meanwhile, Japan's National CPI rose to a nine-month peak and reaffirmed BoJ rate-hike bets, which could support the Japanese Yen and cap gains for the currency pair.

Gold treads water around $4,000

Gold prices maintain its offered stance in place at the end of the week, hovering around the key $4,000 threshold per troy ounce. The persistent selling bias in the precious metal comes amid decent gains in the US Dollar and an acceptable rebound in US Treasury yields across the curve, all alongside further upside traction in crude oil prices.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin holds the 50-day EMA as Ethereum and XRP face structural resistance

Bitcoin gradually ticks up on Friday, trading above $81,000. The Crypto King has recently defended structural support near $80,000, reinforcing the prevailing bullish outlook. Ethereum similarly edges higher above $2,400, while Ripple trades above $1.32 after testing support around $1.30.

The French bond panic is overdone. Here's what the market is misreading

France's 10-year government bond yield has climbed above 5%, reigniting fears of a sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone. With public debt exceeding €3.5 trillion, persistent budget deficits and a fragmented political landscape, investors are increasingly questioning the French government's ability to stabilize its finances.

What November 3 means for the Fed's rate path and the US Dollar

The USD faces a decisive period ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. While markets anticipate another interest rate increase from the Fed in December, the battle for control of Congress could reshape fiscal policy expectations and, indirectly, the path of US monetary policy in 2027.