AUD/USD stays on the slippery ground below 0.6100, ignores risk reset

  • AUD/USD registers fourth day of losses, fails to extend the latest recovery from 0.6000.
  • US President Trump’s tweet concerning the Saudi-Russia pact seemed to boost the market’s risk-tone.
  • Coronavirus figures continue to flash red signals, a mild one from Italy, while US Jobless Claims were horrendous.
  • Aussie Retail Sales, China Caixin Services PMI is in immediate focus, virus headlines to remain as the key.

AUD/USD steps back from the recent high of 0.6070 to 0.6055, defying its gradual recovery from Thursday’s low of near 0.6000, while entering the NFP-day, Friday, for the Asian session. The pair seems to put a heavy emphasis on the US dollar strength while paying a little heed to the risk reset off-late.

Data fails, rumors win…

Despite witnessing a horrendous US Jobless Claims, 6648K versus 3500K forecasts and 3283K prior, global markets registered a pullback in risk-tone during the US session on Thursday. The reason could be traced to US President Donald Trump’s tweet suggesting a pact between the Saud Arabia and Russia to guard oil’s bloodbath. Though, the same was later denied by the Russian spokesman whereas Saudi Arabia also refrained from any confirmation but nobody cared.

The latest on the calendar was Australia’s AiG Performance of Construction Index for March that crashed below 42.7 to 37.9 prior.

Elsewhere, the coronavirus (COVID-19) figures keep flashing worrisome signals while crossing 1.0 million confirmed cases and more than 50,000 deaths globally. However, Spain seems to portray a receding risk for the last four days with the latest number being 4,668.

Moreover, French PM Édouard Philippe said that the lockdown will probably be extended beyond April 15 whereas UK PM came to Downing Street’s doorstep to join “clap for cares”.

The US 10-year treasury yields recovered from the early Thursday declines below 0.58% to 0.61% by the day’s close whereas Wall Street benchmarks also marked gains near 2.0% each.

Although virus headlines are the king of price moves, Aussie Retail Sales for February and March month China Caixin Services PMI can decorate Friday’s economic calendar ahead of the key US data. It should also be noted that the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will gain higher attention than the usually important jobs report, the reason will be the timing of data collection.

That said, Aussie Retail Sales may try to lure the buyers with 0.4% versus -0.3% earlier while Chinese data might also follow the footsteps of the latest activity data. However, nothing is likely to cause a major reversal in the Aussie pair, unless being drastically positive that is less expected, amid the present virus-infected pessimism.

Technical analysis

In addition to its failure in crossing 21-day SMA, a downside break below the two-week-old rising trend line also favors the bears. However, 10-day SMA near 0.6020 and 0.6000 round-figure seem to provide a breathing space for the bears ahead of flashing fresh lows of the month. Alternatively, a 21-day SMA level of 0.6150, followed by the support-turned-resistance, currently at 0.6230, could keep the pair’s pullback moves in check.

Additional important levels

Today last price 0.6058
Today Daily Change -13 pips
Today Daily Change % -0.21%
Today daily open 0.6071
Daily SMA20 0.6153
Daily SMA50 0.6469
Daily SMA100 0.667
Daily SMA200 0.6758
Previous Daily High 0.6186
Previous Daily Low 0.6039
Previous Weekly High 0.62
Previous Weekly Low 0.57
Previous Monthly High 0.6686
Previous Monthly Low 0.5509
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6095
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.613
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6011
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5952
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5864
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6159
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6246
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6306



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