- The AUD/USD tumbles on Thursday as the US Dollar strengthens amid renewed trade policy concerns.
- Trump’s tariff threats fuel risk aversion, overshadowing softer-than-expected US inflation data.
- US PPI data signals weaker inflation, but investors remain focused on escalating trade tensions.
- Technical indicators suggest further downside with AUD/USD losing key support levels.
The AUD/USD tumbles to near 0.6280 as the US Dollar outperforms on the Trump administration’s tariff agenda. The pair faced sharp selling pressure on Thursday as renewed fears of a global economic slowdown triggered a flight to the US Dollar.
Investors largely ignored softer US CPI and PPI data for February, instead focusing on US President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade stance. His renewed commitment to "America First" policies stoked fears of retaliatory measures, weighing on risk-sensitive assets like the Australian Dollar.
Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar under pressure as trade fears escalate
- The US Dollar Index (DXY) rebounded sharply, reaching 104.00 after recovering from a four-month low of 103.20. The Greenback gained as traders turned to safe-haven assets amid heightened concerns over trade policy.
- Trump reiterated his protectionist stance, stating that the US does not have “Free Trade” but “Stupid Trade” in a Truth Social post. His comments reinforced expectations of further tariffs on key trading partners.
- New tariffs on European imports further rattled markets. Trump confirmed retaliatory duties on 26 billion Euros worth of Eurozone goods after the EU imposed countermeasures against the 25% universal import duty the US placed on steel and aluminum.
- US inflation data was softer than expected but failed to weaken the US Dollar. The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell to 0.0% in February, well below the 0.3% estimate, while core PPI contracted by 0.1%. Despite weak inflation figures, markets focused on rising geopolitical and trade risks.
- The Australian Dollar struggled amid deteriorating risk sentiment. The currency, which closely reflects Chinese economic performance, faced headwinds as the US maintained 20% tariffs on Chinese imports, raising fears of a further slowdown in Australia’s key trading partner.
- Markets are also monitoring diplomatic developments as US officials visit Russia to discuss a potential ceasefire agreement with Ukraine. However, geopolitical tensions remain elevated, adding further support to the US Dollar.
- Looking ahead, traders will closely watch Australia’s labor market report, due March 20, for insights into the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) potential policy direction.
AUD/USD Technical Analysis: Downside pressure intensifies as key support breaks
The AUD/USD dropped on Thursday, moving toward the 0.6280 region during the American session, as selling momentum intensified. The pair struggled to find support with trade risks and a stronger US Dollar keeping pressure on the Aussie.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator continues to print flat red bars, signaling fading momentum but maintaining a bearish bias. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 48, declining sharply into negative territory, reflecting growing downside risks.The pair has lost its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), confirming a deteriorating technical outlook. Further downside could target the 0.6250 region, where stronger demand might emerge. On the upside, resistance is seen around 0.6320, but a break above this level would be needed to shift sentiment toward recovery.
Australian Dollar FAQs
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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