AUD/USD seems vulnerable near multi-week low, break below 0.6600 awaited
- AUD/USD oscillates in a narrow trading band just above a nearly one-month low.
- RBA’s inaction and China’s economic woes continue to cap the Australian Dollar.
- Bets for one more Fed rate hike offset Fitch downgrade and lend support to the USD.
- The fundamental backdrop supports prospects for additional losses for the the major.
The AUD/USD pair consolidates its recent downfall to a nearly one-month low and seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses through the Asian session on Wednesday. Spot prices currently trade just above the 0.6600 round-figure mark, nearly unchanged for the day, and the lack of any meaningful buying supports propsects for an extendion of the recent descending trend witnessed over the past three weeks or so.
The AUD/USD pair did get a minor lift in the wake of some intraday US Dollar (USD) selling that followed the Fitch downgrade of the US Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'AA+' from 'AAA'. The intial market reaction, however, remains limited on the back of a generally softer risk tone, which tends to undermine the risk-sensitive Aussie. Apart from this, rising bets for one more 25 bps rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September or November act as a tailwind for the USD and contribute to caping the upside for the major.
It is worth recalling that Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the economy still needs to slow and the labour market to weaken for inflation to credibly return to the 2% target. Furthermore, the incoming US macro data points to an extremely resilient economy and further supports prospects for further tightening by the Fed. This remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and lends support to the USD. Apart from this, the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision to leave rates unchanged on Tuesday favours the AUD/USD bears.
The aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside, though hopes for more stimulus from China could help limit losses for the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD). Hence, it will be prudent to wait for a sustained break below the 0.6600 mark before positioning for further losses. Traders now look to the US ADP report on privaet-sector employment, due later during the early North American session, which, along with the broader risk sentiment, should provide some impetus to the AUD/USD pair.
Technical levels to watch
Author
Haresh Menghani
FXStreet
Haresh Menghani is a detail-oriented professional with 10+ years of extensive experience in analysing the global financial markets.
