Having failed once again just below 0.80 handle on Friday, the AUD/USD pair has entered a consolidation phase around mid-0.79s, awaiting a clear direction from Fedspeaks and US macro news due on the cards later this week.
AUD/USD: Upside capped near 5-DMA at 0.7970
The spot continues to move back and forth in a 30-pips tight range, with every upside attempt sold-off into broad based US dollar strength and weaker commodities’ prices. Meanwhile, an extensive rally seen in the AUD/NZD cross, in the wake of NZ election outcome weighing heavily on the NZD, keeps the downside capped.
The US dollar caught a fresh bid-wave across the board, mainly driven by the renewed selling seen in EUR/USD, as markets digest the German election fallout and eye fresh developments related to the elections. The USD index jumps +0.37% to print daily tops at 92.29 last minutes.
Later today, the major could remain exposed to downside risks, as the upcoming speeches by the FOMC member Dudley and Evans could provide extra legs to the ongoing USD rally amid a data-empty US docket.
AUD/USD Technical View
According to Omkar Godbole, Analyst at FXStreet, “The breach of the rising trend line coupled with an end of the day close below the 50-day moving average [topped out] indicates the tide has turned in favor of the bears. The currency pair looks set to test 0.7808 [Aug 15 low] in the short-run. A violation there would expose the 100-DMA, which is seen sloping higher to 0.7770 over the next few days. Only an end of the day close above 0.81 would revive the bullish view.”
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