AUD/USD Price Analysis: Up leg within sideways trend approaches ceiling


  • AUD/USD is unfolding an up leg within a range which is approaching the range highs. 
  • If it reaches the highs the pair could reverse and begin a move south, extending the sideways trend. 
  • A clear breakout above the range highs or lows would be required to give the pair directionality again.

AUD/USD trades about a half of a percent higher in the 0.6660s on Friday as the pair continues rising following a bounce from the May 24 swing lows. 

The pair has probably entered a sideways trend and since “the trend is your friend” this range-bound market mode is likely to extend. The range the Aussie finds itself trading in appears to have a high at the May 26 high of 0.6680 and a floor at 0.6591 (May 30 low). 

AUD/USD 4-hour Chart

The current leg up within the range could reach the range ceiling at 0.6680 before reversing and starting a down leg to the range floor. 

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) momentum indicator has crossed above its red signal line, giving a buy signal and supporting the move higher. 

If AUD/USD reaches the range highs or close to them and then rolls over and forms a Japanese candlestick reversal pattern it could be a sign the pair is extending its sideways trend and a leg down is about to begin. 

A MACD cross back below the signal line – especially if in positive territory – would add further evidence to suggest a move down within the narrow range was evolving. 

Failed breakdown

AUD/USD broke down from its rising channel on May 22, bringing the established uptrend into doubt. Follow-through lower was weak, however, and the pair soon found its feet. There is no clear short-term directional trend suggesting the trend may actually be sideways. 

It would require a decisive break below 0.6591 to confirm more downside, with the next target probably at 0.6560 where the 100 and 50-day SMAs are located (not shown). 

Alternatively, a decisive break above the range ceiling would reassert the bullish bias and probably lead to 0.6714 (May 14 high). 

Decisive breaks are accompanied by long candles that break through the level and close near their high or low or three consecutive candles that pierce the level in question and are all of the same color (red for a bearish decisive break and green for bullish). 

 

Share: Feed news

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.

If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.

FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.

The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.

Recommended content


Recommended content

Editors’ Picks

AUD/USD: Gains look capped near 0.6800

AUD/USD: Gains look capped near 0.6800

AUD/USD lost ground for the third session in a row and revisited the 0.6720-0.6715 band following the generalized bearish performance of commodities and ahead of the key release of the Australian labour market report.

AUD/USD News

EUR/USD keeps the bid tone in place ahead of ECB

EUR/USD keeps the bid tone in place ahead of ECB

EUR/USD added to Tuesday’s advance and rose to new highs around 1.0950 in response to extra weakness in the Greenback and rising expectations prior to the ECB gathering on Thursday.

EUR/USD News

Gold retreats from record highs, retains the bullish stance

Gold retreats from record highs, retains the bullish stance

Gold trades flat on the day below $2,470 after touching a new record high above $2,480 in the Asian session on Wednesday. The modest recovery seen in the US Treasury bond yields causes XAU/USD to consolidate its gains.

Gold News

Ripple extends gains as XRP traders await end of SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit

Ripple extends gains as XRP traders await end of SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit

Ripple (XRP), XRP Ledger’s native token, extended gains by nearly 7% on Wednesday. The sixth largest asset by market capitalization rallied for the tenth consecutive day and erased all losses from the last 99 days. 

Read more

Australian Unemployment Rate seen steady at 4% in June

Australian Unemployment Rate seen steady at 4% in June

With sentiment dominating financial markets, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the monthly employment report on Thursday at 1:30 GMT. The country is expected to have added 20K new positions in June, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen to remain steady at 4%.

Read more

Forex MAJORS

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures