AUD/USD Price Analysis: Bears eyeing a high probability setup

AUD/USD bulls capped in numerous attempts to no avail.
Bears lining up a high probability setup for a deep Fibonacci retracement.

Ross J Burland FXStreet

AUD/USD is moving towards a bearish weekly close following last week's colossal 5% advance from below the 0.71 level.

The following is a daily analysis that illustrates where the most probable trajectory is based on market structure and price action.

Daily chart

While the extended rally would usually be supported with prior support, looking left, the prospects of the downside outweigh the support level considering the cluster of daily upside failures as resistance.

This, therefore, opens prospects of a deeper retracement to beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci.

The next structure and Fibonacci confluence come in at the 61.8% Fibonacci all the way down at 0.7125.

4-hour setup

Noting that the price is below the structure and the 21-hour moving average, there is still some consolidation required below this level for the MACD to confirm a bearish environment.

Bears will be seeking a discount from the local resistance structure, which was prior support.

On a retest of the structure, bears can enter with a stop loss above the structure for a 1:3 risk to reward ration and high probability setup.

Author

Ross J Burland

FXStreet

Ross J Burland, born in England, UK, is a sportsman at heart. He played Rugby and Judo for his county, Kent and the South East of England Rugby team.

EUR/USD hovers around nine-day EMA above 1.1800

EUR/USD remains in the positive territory after registering modest gains in the previous session, trading around 1.1820 during the Asian hours on Monday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index momentum indicator at 54 is edging higher, signaling improving momentum. RSI near mid-50s keeps momentum balanced. A sustained push above 60 would firm bullish control.

GBP/USD holds medium-term bullish bias above 1.3600

The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.3605 during the early European session on Monday. Growing expectation of the Bank of England’s interest-rate cut weighs on the Pound Sterling against the Greenback.

Gold sticks to gains above $5,000 as China's buying and Fed rate-cut bets drive demand

Gold surges past the $5,000 psychological mark during the Asian session on Monday in reaction to the weekend data, showing that the People's Bank of China extended its buying spree for a 15th month in January. Moreover, dovish US Federal Reserve expectations and concerns about the central bank's independence drag the US Dollar lower for the second straight day, providing an additional boost to the non-yielding yellow metal.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate after massive sell-off

Weekly column: Saturn-Neptune and the end of the Dollar’s 15-year bull cycle

Tariffs are not only inflationary for a nation but also risk undermining the trust and credibility that go hand in hand with the responsibility of being the leading nation in the free world and controlling the world’s reserve currency.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate after massive sell-off

Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Ripple prices consolidated on Monday after correcting by nearly 9%, 8%, and 10% in the previous week, respectively. BTC is hovering around $70,000, while ETH and XRP are facing rejection at key levels. Traders should be cautious: despite recent stabilization, upside recovery for these top three cryptocurrencies is capped as the broader trend remains bearish.