AUD/USD: Bulls and bears jostle below 0.7400, Australia Q2 CPI, Fed eyed


  • AUD/USD seesaws inside a 20-pips trading range after recalling the bears.
  • Fears over NSW infections supersede optimism over Victoria’s unlock.
  • China stocks, virus woes elsewhere and mixed US data add to bearish momentum.
  • The art of Fed’s rejection to tapering will be the key as no policy action is expected.

AUD/USD remains sidelined, challenging the previous day’s fall, around 0.7360 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The coronavirus woes joined China’s crackdown on technology and private tuitions to weigh on the quote on Tuesday. On the same side were the pre-Fed caution and mixed US data, not to forget the deadlock of US stimulus and Sino-American tussles.

Having reported the highest daily infections since March, with 175 count, chatters over Australia’s New South Wales (NSW) to mark over 200 figure for the day are all around. The same will propel the national count to a fresh 10 month top while crossing the previous day’s 187 level. Additionally, Victoria officially exits the snap unlock but activity restrictions remain in place for the most of the state.

With the NSW outbreak pushing policymakers towards faster inoculation, Aussie PM Scott Morrison is up for a press conference around 11:00 AM Australia Time, the same when the leaders from South Australia (SA), Victoria and NSW will cross the wires.

On a different page, US-China tussles escalate over the American ban of Beijing diplomats’ visas as well as the US ties with Hong Kong and Vietnam of late. Furthermore, softer-than-expected prints of US Durable Goods Orders and housing numbers jostle the notable upward revision to the priors, as well as firmer US CB Consumer Confidence to weigh on the sentiment and AUD/USD prices.

Amid these plays, S&P 500 Futures track Wall Street’s losses, the first in six days, whereas the US 10-year Treasury yields consolidate recent losses around 1.23% by the press time.

Moving on, Australia’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the second quarter (Q2) expected 0.7% versus 0.6% QoQ and 3.8% versus 1.1% YoY, will be the key for AUD/USD prices for immediate direction. Should the inflation numbers meet optimistic forecasts, the quote may consolidate the latest losses to prepare for the likely drawdown post-Fed. Also important will be Aussie PM’s press conference as well as the second-tier US data.

Read: Federal Reserve Preview: Three reasons why Powell could pause, pummeling the dollar

Technical analysis

AUD/USD retreats below the monthly resistance line, around 0.7405, signaling another battle with the 0.7340 support on the way to the month’s low, also the lowest since November 2020, near 0.7290.

Additional important levels

Overview
Today last price 0.7365
Today Daily Change -0.0019
Today Daily Change % -0.26%
Today daily open 0.7384
 
Trends
Daily SMA20 0.7441
Daily SMA50 0.7586
Daily SMA100 0.765
Daily SMA200 0.7594
 
Levels
Previous Daily High 0.7391
Previous Daily Low 0.733
Previous Weekly High 0.7417
Previous Weekly Low 0.7288
Previous Monthly High 0.7794
Previous Monthly Low 0.7477
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.7368
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.7353
Daily Pivot Point S1 0.7346
Daily Pivot Point S2 0.7308
Daily Pivot Point S3 0.7285
Daily Pivot Point R1 0.7407
Daily Pivot Point R2 0.7429
Daily Pivot Point R3 0.7468

 

 

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