AUD: Risk of spike higher before returning to range trading - Westpac

Momentum remains high, but has not rolled over as AUD tests multiple resistance at 0.7830-50, explains Tim Riddell, Research Analyst at Westpac.

Key Quotes

“AUD and daily momentum are now very stretched.”

“A larger squeeze (to 0.7910 or even 0.81+/-) is possible on a close above 0.7850, but equally, a slip below 0.7730 could signal a return to range trading.”

Weekly

  • Weekly momentum is high but remains supportive as multiple resistance is being tested. Though now at extreme levels, momentum is still not faltering.
  • However, even if AUD breaks higher, it would still be seen as a broad corrective retracement and be followed by a return to range trading”

“Monthly

  • Monthly momentum has flipped from neutral to positive, notably in stochastics, as a long term down-channel, retracements and previous highs are being tested
  • This month’s close is critical. A close above the channel could open potential for a further (but corrective) squeeze. Below, would affirm range resistance”

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