In view of Sean Callow, Research Analyst at Westpac, without the threat of a rate cut or intervention, jawboning will do little to cap AUD/USD and it will rally further ahead.
Key Quotes
“The flurry of talk about an RBA tightening bias has mostly been doused by Debelle’s clarification on neutral rates, the Lowe speech and a muted CPI reading. Tuesday’s RBA statement should reaffirm a neutral outlook for the cash rate, arguing against AUD outperformance on crosses.”
“Commodity prices offer more support for AUD, with iron ore, copper and energy prices chopping higher. But on our estimates, the commodity rally has not kept up with AUD/USD, producing substantial overvaluation.”
“If the RBA has similar estimates, then they would be justified in using more forceful language in the statement. Indeed if they do not, then AUD is likely to rally further. But without the threat of a rate cut or intervention, jawboning will do little to cap AUD/USD if the US dollar remains heavy. Trade as high as 0.8150 is plausible but with specs already very long, we prefer neutral on the week.”
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD: Federal Reserve and Nonfarm Payrolls spell action this week
The EUR/USD pair temporarily reconquered the 1.0700 threshold last week, settling at around that round level. The US Dollar lost its appeal following discouraging United States macroeconomic data indicating tepid growth and persistent inflationary pressures.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Gold: Strength of $2,300 support is an encouraging sign for bulls
Gold price started last week under heavy bearish pressure and registered its largest one-day loss of the year on Monday. The pair managed to stage a rebound in the second half of the week but closed in negative territory.
Ethereum fees drops to lowest level since October, ETH sustains above $3,200
Ethereum’s high transaction fees has been a sticky issue for the blockchain in the past. This led to Layer 2 chains and scaling solutions developing alternatives for users looking to transact at a lower cost.
Week ahead – Hawkish risk as Fed and NFP on tap, Eurozone data eyed too
Fed meets on Wednesday as US inflation stays elevated. Will Friday’s jobs report bring relief or more angst for the markets? Eurozone flash GDP and CPI numbers in focus for the Euro.