AUD/NZD: Bulls tiring and bears eye a break below 21-DMA

  • The market has been pricing for RBNZ for 25bp of easing on 13 November.
  • The Market is pricing for the RBA to cut again in November.
  • Upside attempts are failing around 1.0790 as bulls begin to tire.

AUD/NZD is sat in the mid 1.0750s, consolidating above a cluster of 4-hour moving averages. The upside attempts are failing around 1.0790 as bulls begin to tire, making a lower high.

The latest data to impact the Aussie had been yesterday's Unemployment Rate that dropped on a seasonally adjusted basis by 0.1% which came as a positive surprise, albeit, perhaps not enough of a drop for the markets to seriously start to discount the prospects of a rate cut.

However, market pricing for the RBA to cut again in November was cut to a modest -6 basis points – Indeed, AUD/USD rallied from under 0.6760 to a high of 0.6791. Overnight, the Australian 3-year government bond yields rose from 0.74% to 0.79% (a one-month high) before settling around 0.75%, the 10-year yield from 1.09% to 1.16% to 1.12%. 

As far as the NZD, the market has been pricing for RBNZ for 25bp of easing on 13 November, with a terminal rate of 0.55% which is likely to cap rallies in the bird and the downside in the cross. "

We continue to expect a further cut in the OCR to 0.75% in November, with rates remaining low for an extended period after that," analysts at Westpac argued, noting the recent Consumer Price index – rising by 0.7% in the September quarter, higher than forecast.

AUD/NZD levels

AUD/NZD has pierced the 21 4-hour moving average to the downside but has been unable to penetrate it ahad of the 50 and 200 4-hour moving averages. The 50-day moving average is located inline with the 1.0660s and recent swing lows which could be a touch area of support. 1.0840 protects a run towards the 1.10 psychological level. 


Today last price 1.0754
Today Daily Change 0.0012
Today Daily Change % 0.11
Today daily open 1.0742
Daily SMA20 1.0733
Daily SMA50 1.0671
Daily SMA100 1.0577
Daily SMA200 1.0542
Previous Daily High 1.0779
Previous Daily Low 1.0685
Previous Weekly High 1.0736
Previous Weekly Low 1.0643
Previous Monthly High 1.0852
Previous Monthly Low 1.063
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0743
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0721
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0692
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0641
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0597
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0786
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.083
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.088



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