Research Team at Westpac, suggests that AUD trade this week seems likely to be contained within the 0.75-0.77 range.
“The Aussie's domestic fundamentals are strong, including fading pricing for an RBA easing, steady growth and a diminished terms of trade drag with Australia's commodity export price basket at its highest levels since Nov 2014. Against that global sovereign bond yields continue to ratchet higher, including US10yr yields at 1.80%, a high since early June. While Australian yields are also rising, AUD benefits more when global yields are falling. Also supporting USD is the insistence of Fed officials that they are likely to raise rates this year. Pricing for a Dec hike is up to 64% but could rise further, squeezing Asian currencies, which often hurts AUD.
Technical: Rising support at 0.7495 held. An upturn in daily momentum and regaining 0.7630 has flipped the bias to a push through channel resistance (0.7690) toward 0.7835-50. But, that should complete a broad consolidation pattern. Any slip below 0.7630 risks a return to the bias for deeper corrections.”
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