AUD/JPY jumps to near 98.00 as RBA hold interest rates steady at 3.6% as expected
- AUD/JPY gains sharply to near 98.00 as the RBA has kept its OCR steady at 3.6%, as expected.
- The RBA stated that inflation in the third quarter could be higher than what they had anticipated earlier.
- BoJ members signaled no urgency for interest rate hikes.
The AUD/JPY pair climbs to near 98.00 as the Australian Dollar (AUD) strengthens after the announcement from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) that members have decided to hold its Official Cash Rate (OCR) steady at 3.6%. The RBA was expected to maintain the status quo as inflationary pressures in the Australian economy have proven to be sticky in the last few months.
Australian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.01% | -0.02% | -0.15% | 0.00% | -0.43% | -0.25% | -0.08% | |
| EUR | -0.01% | -0.05% | -0.16% | -0.03% | -0.44% | -0.26% | -0.07% | |
| GBP | 0.02% | 0.05% | -0.08% | 0.04% | -0.41% | -0.21% | -0.02% | |
| JPY | 0.15% | 0.16% | 0.08% | 0.12% | -0.28% | 0.07% | 0.10% | |
| CAD | 0.00% | 0.03% | -0.04% | -0.12% | -0.43% | -0.22% | -0.06% | |
| AUD | 0.43% | 0.44% | 0.41% | 0.28% | 0.43% | 0.19% | 0.39% | |
| NZD | 0.25% | 0.26% | 0.21% | -0.07% | 0.22% | -0.19% | 0.20% | |
| CHF | 0.08% | 0.07% | 0.02% | -0.10% | 0.06% | -0.39% | -0.20% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
In August, the Monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew at an annual pace of 3.0%, faster than expectations of 2.9% and the prior reading of 2.8%.
Meanwhile, the RBA has also warned of upside inflation risks in its monetary policy statement. “Recent indicators suggest inflation in the September quarter may be higher than expected at the time of August,” the RBA said.
Going forward, the major trigger for the AUD will be the Trade Balance data for August, which will be published on Thursday.
Though investors have underpinned the AUD against the Japanese Yen (JPY), the latter is outperforming its other peers, even as the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) Summary of Opinions (SOP) has signaled that officials don’t see any urgency for interest rate hikes.
BoJ members have stated that the central bank needs more time to assess the impact of the US tariffs-driven trade war risk on the Japanese economy.
RBA FAQs
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for Australia. Decisions are made by a board of governors at 11 meetings a year and ad hoc emergency meetings as required. The RBA’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means an inflation rate of 2-3%, but also “..to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people.” Its main tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will strengthen the Australian Dollar (AUD) and vice versa. Other RBA tools include quantitative easing and tightening.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for currencies since it lowers the value of money in general, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Moderately higher inflation now tends to lead central banks to put up their interest rates, which in turn has the effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in the case of Australia is the Aussie Dollar.
Macroeconomic data gauges the health of an economy and can have an impact on the value of its currency. Investors prefer to invest their capital in economies that are safe and growing rather than precarious and shrinking. Greater capital inflows increase the aggregate demand and value of the domestic currency. Classic indicators, such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can influence AUD. A strong economy may encourage the Reserve Bank of Australia to put up interest rates, also supporting AUD.
Quantitative Easing (QE) is a tool used in extreme situations when lowering interest rates is not enough to restore the flow of credit in the economy. QE is the process by which the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) prints Australian Dollars (AUD) for the purpose of buying assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from financial institutions, thereby providing them with much-needed liquidity. QE usually results in a weaker AUD.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the RBA stops buying more assets, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It would be positive (or bullish) for the Australian Dollar.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
