AUD/CAD slumps below 0.9500 as boiling oil prices strengthen Canadian Dollar
- AUD/CAD slides below 0.9500 as the Canadian Dollar outperforms amid surging oil prices.
- Oil prices rally over 25% as the US and Israel strike several Iranian oil depots.
- Cautious market sentiment amid Iran conflicts has dampened demand for risk-sensitive assets.
The AUD/CAD pair is down over 0.5% to near 0.9485 during the Asian trading session on Monday. The cross faces intense selling pressure as the Canadian Dollar (CAD) performs strongly due to surging oil prices amid war in the Middle East that involves the United States (US), Israel, and Iran.
Canadian Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Euro.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.75% | 0.71% | 0.62% | -0.14% | 0.46% | 0.46% | 0.57% | |
| EUR | -0.75% | -0.04% | -0.13% | -0.89% | -0.29% | -0.28% | -0.18% | |
| GBP | -0.71% | 0.04% | -0.06% | -0.84% | -0.24% | -0.24% | -0.14% | |
| JPY | -0.62% | 0.13% | 0.06% | -0.75% | -0.15% | -0.15% | -0.04% | |
| CAD | 0.14% | 0.89% | 0.84% | 0.75% | 0.60% | 0.61% | 0.71% | |
| AUD | -0.46% | 0.29% | 0.24% | 0.15% | -0.60% | 0.00% | 0.11% | |
| NZD | -0.46% | 0.28% | 0.24% | 0.15% | -0.61% | 0.00% | 0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.57% | 0.18% | 0.14% | 0.04% | -0.71% | -0.11% | -0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).
Higher oil prices are a favorable scenario for the CAD, given that Canada is the largest exporter of oil to the US.
WTI oil price has spiked over 25% in the Asian trade above $110.00 as a report from BBC stated several Iranian oil depots were hit by strikes in a joint operation by the US and Israel over the weekend.
On Friday, Qatar’s Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warned in an interview with Financial Times (FT) that the ongoing war in the Middle East could drive oil to $150 a barrel.
On the domestic front, investors will focus on the Canadian employment data for February, which will be released on Friday. The employment data will significantly influence market expectations for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy outlook. The data is expected to show that employers hired 9.5K fresh workers after firing 24.8K in January.
Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) is facing the heat of weakening demand for riskier assets amid escalating war in the Middle East. S&P 500 futures plunge over 2% in the opening trade, reflecting intense weakness in investors’ risk appetite.
Canadian Dollar FAQs
The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive.
The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD.
While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar.
Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.
Author
Sagar Dua
FXStreet
Sagar Dua is associated with the financial markets from his college days. Along with pursuing post-graduation in Commerce in 2014, he started his markets training with chart analysis.
