Atlanta Fed US GDPNow Q4 estimate rises to 3.0%

GDPNow estimate for the fourth quarter jumps to 3.0% from 2.4%
Forecast boosted by strong November retail sales
Economic growth in 2018 tracking at 3.23%

Joseph Trevisani FXStreet

The Atlanta Federal Reserve updated its GDPNow model of US economic growth in the fourth quarter to 3.0% from 2.4% on December 7th. The report cited a stronger estimate for fourth quarter real personal consumption expenditures that climbed to 4.1% from 3.3% following today's retail sales and industrial production numbers.

The 'retail sales control group' which is included in GDP calculations surged 0.9%, more than double the 0.4% estimate and the prior month also was sharply higher after revision to 0.7% from 0.3%. This category excludes motor vehicles, building material gasoline and food service sales. Overall November retail sales increased 0.2% as did the ex-autos number, both as predicted. These figures were weakened by the decline in energy costs. Retail sales are not corrected for prices changes. Annual sales rose 4.22% increased 4.22% and October's yearly rates climbed to 4.80% from 4.57% following adjustment.

Industrial production rose 0.6% last month twice the prediction though October's 0.1% gain was revised to -0.2%.

Author

Joseph Trevisani

FXStreet

Joseph Trevisani began his thirty-year career in the financial markets at Credit Suisse in New York and Singapore where he worked for 12 years as an interbank currency trader and trading desk manager.

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