Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL set for more declines, but will iPhone 14 launch help?

Apple stock declines for a second straight day on Monday.
AAPL's drop was less than feared as equities stabilize.
Friday's jobs report is now the next key data point.

Ivan Brian FXStreet

Apple (AAPL) and equities, in general, survived Monday quite well with participants having feared the worst following Friday's rout. The main indices lost less than 1%, and Apple was slightly worse losing 1.37%.

Also read: Apple Stock Deep Dive: AAPL price target at $100 on falling 2023 revenues

Apple stock news

The new iPhone is rumored to be launched on September 7 as Apple has sent out media invitations to an event, according to reports. Bulls hoping for this to lead Apple stock higher though may be in for disappointment as the tech giant does not have a great record of outperformance after iPhone launches. It seems the anticipation of the event is the greater catalyst. "Better to travel than to arrive," according to the old stock market adage. The iPhone launch will be keenly watched anyway and will perhaps overshadow recent headwinds from factory shutdowns in China due to the heatwave. Nikkei Asia reported on Monday to have said Foxconn has restarted its Sichuan factory after the worst heatwave in decades.

Apple stock forecast

The interesting take from yesterday was the new low put in for AAPL stock. This is a negative sign, and the rest of the session was fairly calm.

AAPL 15-minute chart

As we can see overall from the daily chart, the summer rally here was huge with gains of over 30%. Apple crested the top trend line, but the breakout failed. AAPL stock has once again set a lower low, which continues the bearish trend in place for the year so far.

There is a gap to be filled down to $154, which looks to be taken out this week. Right now, Apple stock has retraced back down to the 200-day moving average, so expect a bit of a battle here. The overbought signals from the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Money Flow Index (MFI) worked perfectly, and now these have retraced back to neutral. This is not a high-probability trade anymore.

I am still short AAPL but I am so from much higher levels, which makes me happy to stick with the position for now. The easy part of the trade is done, and from there it needs to be closely watched. I expect a bounce on Tuesday and possibly into Wednesday as Monday's sell-off did not materialize. Friday will be the next key data point. Closing above $164 is likely a reversal signal, but with such a key report on Friday, I will try to hold out until then.

Apple 1-day chart

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Author

Ivan Brian

FXStreet

Ivan Brian started his career with AIB Bank in corporate finance and then worked for seven years at Baxter. He started as a macro analyst before becoming Head of Research and then CFO.

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