Apple Stock News and Forecast: AAPL falls 9% on the week as iPhone 14 orders look weak

Apple (AAPL) remains on its throne as the biggest American stock, but that throne looks a little wobbly after a hectic week. While markets have been highly volatile and investors look for shelter, Apple was always seen as a haven. That status is now being questioned after some of last week's revelations. 

Apple stock news

Bloomberg began the bad news brigade when it reported that Apple had asked some of its suppliers not to increase iPhone 14 production. The market naturally assumed this was down to weaker than expected demand. Apple stock fell sharply by 5%. This was also a weak day for overall markets, so not all the sell-off can be directly attributed to the news.

Bank of America then came out with a downgrade for Apple. Downgrades are a rare occurrence for Apple, and Bank of America is not an outlier but a respected institution. This also caught the attention and was reported widely. Finally, the global bond sell-off continues, which meant stocks continued to see strong selling pressure.

All in all, these amount to a series of headwinds for Apple. Now the argument has been going about the difference between orders for the iPhone 14 versus the higher-priced models iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max. Evercore is just out with a note this morning saying lead times for these models is growing, indicative of high demand, so confusion still reigns. My personal view remains bearish. Consumer demand is falling across products and services in response to higher prices. Apple iPhones are high-priced items likely to see falling demand. 

Apple stock forecast

Overall, have we got enough bad news out of the way ahead of earnings season? Apple reports earnings on October 27. Ahead of that, we are likely to see some positions closed as investors flatten risk books. Already I am hearing from some former colleagues in London dealing rooms that risk books have been closed for the year. This will only add to volatility. However, with sentiment terrible and bears everywhere in my view, the risk-reward for another bear market rally is getting closer. 

With a Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 28, the stock is oversold by traditional metrics, although not by my own at 25. This does mean the risk-reward to the downside is shrinking. Is all the bad news now in the price for the short term? That is the question that needs to be answered.

AAPL daily chart

Below we show the hourly chart. Again it looks oversold with Apple stock moving outside the regression channel. $140.74 is my pivot, and then the gap to $149.44 would be targeted.

AAPL 1-hour chart