AMC Entertainment Holdings (AMC stock) forecast: Falling US covid cases boost shares

Update April 22: AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) has closed Wednesday's session with an impressive rise of 5.39% to $9.78. Shares of the movie theater chain have received a boost from America's declining COVID-19 curve. While the pace of vaccinations has slowed down, the number of infections is turning lower. That may encourage more people to go out and about, to watch King Kong or other films. 

NYSE:AMC saw its downward trend continue this week as the relentless correction of growth sectors and overvalued stocks hit retail investors once again. To close the week out on Friday, AMC fell a further 5.8% to close the trading day at $9.33, as the stock falls below the 50-day moving average once again. The extended decline caps off a tumultuous four-week period for AMC where the stock trimmed off 35% in value and is now down 54% from its 52-week high price of $20.36, set during the short squeeze event at the end of January. 

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Speaking of short squeezes, AMC CEO Adam Aron recently came out to say that the stock was once again being targeted by short sellers, as the war against retail investors continues. The total number of shares shorted rose by 50% to a total of 73.8 million shares in the month of March. Will this signal another short squeeze? It’s difficult to say, considering a coordinated short squeeze requires just that, coordination. Institutional investors are more likely to be careful in trying to avoid falling into a similar situation that left Melvin Capital in trouble in January.

AMC Stock news

Friday also saw the end of the long-awaited standoff between r/WallStreetBets Redditor Roaring Kitty and institutional investors. Keith Gill is said to hold 100,000 shares of GameStop (NYSE:GME) at an average cost of $27 per share, and had an estimated $7 million in call options that expired on Friday. Gill exercised all of his options, and Wall Street may finally have found some closure on the great short squeeze event of 2021.

Previous updates

Update April 21: AMC shares have started Wednesday on a positive note with a gain of 1% to $9.39. AMC is currently testing the 9-day moving average resistance at $9.49 with $9.74 being the next resistance if broken. 

Update: AMC is staging something of a comeback, sequel call it what you will but the cinema is having a blockbuster day! Ok, that is enough now stop it! But AMC is up 2% on Monday and aiming to reclaim $10. GameStop is having a moment as Roaring Kitty rides again and GME is looking for a new CEO. So GME the king meme stock is dragging its meme brothers along with it. AMC is trading at $9.54, up 2.2%.

Update: AMC shares continued to suffer on Tuesday suffering a 4% fall in a broad market weakness. Most meme and retail interest stocks were lower as option volumes dry up so market makers reduce hedging positions. Retail traders are also deserting screens for the real world. Fundamental valuations of most meme stocks are way too high so the only buyers are retail. When they step away there is a vacuum.

Update 2 April 20: AMC shares continue to struggle for momentum as the shares fall 3% on Tuesday. Meme stocks are not having a moment with Gamestop, CCIV, RBLX, and others all suffering. AMC shares are trading at $9.32 on Tuesday at the time of writing.

Update April 20: AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) has closed Monday's trading session with a healthy bounce of 3.54% to $9.66. However, the current price is still below last week's closing high of $9.90. The movie theater company seems to already price in America's reopening and struggles to gain additional ground. However, the success of Godzilla vs. Kong shows the desire to see films on the big screen and rakes in substantial cash for AMC. Tuesday's premarket trade is pointing to minor gains for AMC.