Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
Financial Source
Amazon earnings are due out this week for Q4 2022 and expectations are for an EPS of 0.17 and revenue of $145.77 billion. Since the start of the year, Amazon has been preparing for a coming global turndown by cutting 18,000 jobs which was an increase of the 10,000 reported at the end of last year. This is the largest round of job cuts in Amazon’s history and the majority are due to come from their core retail and HR departments. Bloomberg reports that shareholders are concerned about the amount of money Amazon is losing in its core retail business. Does this mean that Amazon has some more downside ahead? Will earnings surprise to the downside?
If earrings do surprise lower, and the stock falls, is this a good time to buy into Amazon for the long haul? Is this a dip worth buying?
The seasonals over the last 25 years show that it is an option worth considering. The stock has gained 19 times over the last 25 years with an average return of 12.28%. The largest gain was an unusual rise in 2007 of 65% and the largest drop was around the dot.com bubble burst in 2000 with a large -28.80% loss.
Major trade risks: The major risk here is that Amazon earnings show deep concerns about Amazon’s business which results in more prolonged falls. Also, a wider global slowdown could also hinder Amazon’s medium-term prospects.
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