According to analysts at ANZ, fundamentals remain positive in the aluminium market as inventories continue to fall amid tightness in the world ex-China.

Key Quotes

“Demand in China is also improving amid proactive fiscal policy measures. However, any price recovery remains contingent on China’s ongoing supply reforms and easing trade tension. Such headwinds may be too great to ignore.”

“Supply growth has been weak in China amid curbs on output and reforms. However, if the shackles are removed from China’s aluminium smelter construction, this could turn around quickly.”

“The impact of the tariffs on Chinese aluminium imports into the US has been relatively minimal. The tightness in the world ex-China market has seen its aluminium product exports remain strong. We see little impact from the increase in tariffs to 25%.”

“Aluminium demand in China is showing signs of recovery. Key sectors such as housing, electricity grid investment and durable goods were all up sharply in recent months. Only the auto sector remains weak; however even the recent fall in growth has subsided.”

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