According to the EIA, the supply surplus to continue to rise – Commerzbank

But the signs point to a storm: In its latest monthly report, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) confirmed that the Oil market is currently significantly oversupplied and that the oversupply will even increase into the first quarter of 2026, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

EIA warns of growing Oil oversupply into 2026

"The EIA assumes that the actual production of the eight producing countries will not increase as much as announced, partly because some countries are now producing at full capacity."

"According to Bloomberg estimates, Russia increased its daily production in September by just under 200,000 barrels compared to the previous month: however, at almost 9.4 million barrels per day, it was still around 40,000 barrels below the quota.

"In addition, following the surprising production record in the US of 13.6 million barrels per day in July, the outlook for daily US production has been revised upward despite low prices: it is now expected to reach an annual average of 13.5 million barrels in 2026, which is 200,000 barrels higher than expected last month."