A new world order is nigh – Standard Chartered

The world is shifting from a US-led liberal order to a multipolar order based on ‘might makes right’. Trump’s foreign policy rejects multilateralism in favour of a zero-sum game of ‘great power collusion’. Future scenarios could include continued multilateralism without the US, or a parallel China-led system, Standard Chartered's economist Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce reports.

Might makes right

"As Geopolitics conflict and instability dominate the news cycle, we take a step back to put current events into the broader context of the changing global world order. This transition has been underway for years and is highly volatile; as the world becomes increasingly multipolar, it has yet to find a clear new equilibrium, giving rise to increased armed conflicts and Geopolitics competition. The gradual economic, political and military rise of EM powers has coincided with the progressive withdrawal of the US from its role as the leader of a Western-led order. This shift has also coincided with an increase in violent conflict and other crises. While US disengagement with the rest of the world started under the Obama presidency, it has taken a different – much sharper – turn in the Trump era."

"Past historical periods when the world lacked a single dominant power may provide clues to what the new order could look like. But the path is uncertain, both in its direction and its ability to deliver a new stable equilibrium. Some scholars have converged around the idea of regional blocs with shared interests, replacing the global convergence that characterised the post-World War II era. Others see the emergence of spheres of influence, with ‘might makes right’ as the guiding principle."

"Historical precedent shows that such a decentralised model is inherently flawed, as it lacks mechanisms for peaceful dispute resolution and tends to foster conditions for imperialistic expansion, while failing to resolve ideological differences. This favours instability and conflict – something that the post-WWII order being challenged today has aimed to contain (despite its flaws and criticism that it is centred on Western values)."