• A breakout might follow Zcash's potential drop to the 50 SMA in the 8-hour range to $70.
  • Low on-chain activity highlights sluggish movements or a drop to the support range between $50 and $55.

Cryptocurrencies across the board continue to bleed with little not no reversal signals on the horizon. For instance, Bitcoin aims for $10,000 and Ethereum for $320, as discussed earlier on Wednesday. However, Zcash is sending out signs of a massive recovery that could eventually reclaim the ground above $70. At the time of writing, Zcash is dancing at $63 after bouncing off immediate support at $60.

Zcash bullish case to $70

The privacy-oriented token is holding above the 50 Simple Moving Average (SMA) in the 480-minutes timeframe. On the upside, price actions are capped by the descending trendline resistance. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has abandoned the downtrend for support at the midline. Continued leveling at the average (50) could call for consolidation ahead of a breakout.

ZEC/USD 480-minutes chart

ZEC/USD price chart

Consequently, Zcash might dip to support at the 50 SMA before a significant reversal comes into the picture. Gains above the trendline resistance are expected to find an open path to $70, where buyers will have to deal with the seller congestion at the 200 SMA. Crucial support is highlighted in the range between $50 and $55.

The 60-minutes chart highlights a growing bullish grip as observed with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). The bullish divergence beneath the MACD emphasizes the growing bullish grip. Moreover, ZEC is trading above a short term descending parallel channel. Bulls must push the price above the 100 SMA and the 50 SMA. A move of such magnitude could invalidate the expected drop to $58 (50 SMA in the 8-hour timeframe).

ZEC/USD 60-minutes chart

ZEC/USD price chart

IntoTheBlock's "Daily New Addresses" metric shows an increase in the number of new addresses over the last seven days. The addresses topped 3,500 on October 1 when ZEC/USD exchanged hands at 65. A significant drop was recorded on October 3, but recovery followed with the new addresses growing to roughly 3,400 on October 5. At the time of writing, this number has started to retrace with the addresses holding at 3,700. If the number of new addresses joining the network hits lower levels, ZEC/USD could resume the downtrend and sabotage the uptrend altogether.

Zcash new addresses chart

ZEC new addresses chart

The spike to $65 coincided with a surge in the social volume according to data provided by Santiment. The surge was attributed to Gemini exchange added supported for shielded ZEC withdrawals on October 1. However, the volume has gone down significantly. A high social volume tends to precede spikes in the price of an asset. On the flip side, a lower social volume is characterized by falling or dormant price actions.

Zcash social volume chart

ZEC social volume chart

Looking at the other side of the fence

It is worth mentioning that Zcash could sabotage the bullish narrative due to the low on-chain activity. The token's social volume is near the bottom while the number of new addresses joining the network is going down. Simultaneously, if the 50 SMA support in the 8-hour range fails to hold, losses could engulf Zcash, sending it to the next support range between $50 and $55.

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