|

Why LUNA price could drop another 20%

  • LUNA price is forming a head-and-shoulders pattern that hints at a 36% crash.
  • A bounce off the weekly support level at $62 seems to have paused the nosedive to $47.28.
  • A six-hour candlestick close above $75.53 will invalidate the bearish thesis for Terra.

LUNA price shows ambiguous signals as it approaches the weekly support level. A breakdown of this barrier could trigger another massive downswing, but there is a chance of a minor upswing as well.

LUNA price at the edge

LUNA price action since February 22 has formed head-and-shoulders. This technical formation contains three distinctive swing highs; the central one is the tallest one and is known as the “head”. The two peaks on either side with comparable heights are known as “shoulders”. 

The valleys of the head and shoulders can be connected to form a horizontal support level at $75.53, also known as the “neckline”.

This technical formation forecasts a 36% downswing, which is obtained by measuring the distance between the head’s highest point and neckline. Adding this distance to the breakout point at $62 reveals the target at $47.28.

So far, LUNA price has crashed 18% from the neckline and is currently bouncing off the weekly support level at $62. This barrier is significant in where Terra head next. If the buyers keep struggling as they have over the past three days, a breakdown seems apparent. 

In such a situation, LUNA price could crash to $47.28 and even extend lower to retest the $43.56 weekly support floor.

LUNA/USDT 6-hour chart

LUNA/USDT 6-hour chart

While things are looking grim for the altcoin, a six-hour candlestick close above $75.53 will invalidate the head-and-shoulders bearish thesis for LUNA price. In such a case, Terra could attempt to set a higher high above the $87.84 resistance barrier to trigger a further ascent.

Author

Akash Girimath

Akash Girimath is a Mechanical Engineer interested in the chaos of the financial markets. Trying to make sense of this convoluted yet fascinating space, he switched his engineering job to become a crypto reporter and analyst.

More from Akash Girimath
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

Crypto market outlook for 2026

Year 2025 was volatile, as crypto often is.  Among positive catalysts were favourable regulatory changes in the U.S., rise of Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), adoption of AI and tokenization of Real-World-Assets (RWA).

Meme Coins Price Prediction: Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe recover, echoing Bitcoin rebound

Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe are trading mixed as Bitcoin records minor gains on Monday, warming sentiment across the broader cryptocurrency market. Still, the incipient recovery in Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, and Pepe remains fragile amid the prevailing downtrend.

Bitcoin consolidates as downside risks persist

Bitcoin has made only three wave rallies from the November lows, which is one of the most important indications that more weakness may still lie ahead.

Polkadot's (DOT) dips, with token underperforming wider crypto markets

DOT $1.8269 fell 2% to $1.84 over the last 24 hours. Trading volumes were 7.8% above the seven-day moving average at 7.76 million tokens, according to CoinDesk Research's technical analysis model.

Orange Juice Newsletter – Smart insights by real people. Every day.

A free newsletter highlighting key market trends to help traders stay a step ahead. Daily insights on the most relevant trading topics, compiled by our experts in an easy-to-read format so you never miss an important move.

Bitcoin: Fed delivers, yet fails to impress BTC traders

Bitcoin (BTC) continues de trade within the recent consolidation phase, hovering around $92,000 at the time of writing on Friday, as investors digest the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) cautious December rate cut and its implications for risk assets.