Week Ahead: Bitcoin ETF approval this week, yay or nay?

Bitcoin and Ethereum price rallies have paused over the weekend, allowing investors to take a step back and look at the big picture. So, let’s take a look at the big picture. 

Week in review

Monday, November 13

• US CPI inflation preview

Tuesday, November 14

• US CPI Inflation
• CYBER $8.73 million unlock
• MATIC announcement 

Wednesday, November 15

• FLOKI announcement
• XEC network upgrade
• AMB tokenomics upgrade

Thursday, November 16

• ARB day
• TOKEN announcement

Friday, November 17

• BTC spot ETF approval window ends
• APE $23.71 million unlock
• ROSE $14.81 million unlock

Saturday, November 18

• YGG web3 games conference (up to November 25)

Sunday, November 19

• CKB halving
• SWIFT ISO20022

Altcoin of the week: Filecoin

1. Filecoin (FIL) price tugs with the critical resistance levels, extending from $4.80 to $5.34. 
2. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has overcome the 50 mean level, while the Awesome Oscillator (AO) is close to flipping above the zero level, indicating that bullish momentum is dominating. 
3. A successful maintenance of the bullish momentum could lead to a 33% rally to $7.07.
4. In a highly bullish case, FIL price could increase 145% and tag the declining trend line at roughly $13.09. 

FIL/USDT 1-week chart

Bitcoin ETF approval window

This week is extremely important for crypto investors for one singular reason – the Bitcoin spot ETF decision that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is set to take. As mentioned in the previous publication, the ETF window, extending from November 13 to 17, is when the SEC could batch-approve all 12 ETF applications. Hence, this event could serve as the biggest tailwind for the extension of this rally. 

Read more: Bitcoin Weekly Forecast: BTC crashes ahead of ETF approval window, but bull run is not under threat

CPI data release 

Core inflation year-over-year numbers are set steady at 4.1% in October. This forecast, combined with cooler-than-expected jobs data and the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates higher, suggests a discernible slowdown in the economy’s growth. If the economy continues to cool at this pace, the Fed is unlikely to raise interest rates further and potentially consider a pivot instead. 

The CME Group FedWatch tool indicates a 93.5% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% at its December meeting.

CME Group FedWatch Tool

Crypto rally and potential bearish outcomes

1. The SEC does not approve ETFs this week 
   In such a case, Bitcoin price is likely to cool down or correct to the $35,000 to $31,000 range. This will cause altcoins to drop hard as well, printing double-digit losses. 
2. Bitcoin and altcoins print sell signals 
   Many altcoins have already started to post signs of exhaustion and trend reversals. If the ETF approval does not come, Bitcoin will likely correct, dragging altcoins down with it.